Among large pharmaceutical companies, Eli Lilly (LLY), Merck (MRK), and Pfizer (PFE) are among the largest in the world. Eli Lilly focuses on the development of diabetes and weight management drugs and holds a leading position in this field; MRK and Pfizer have strong footprints in oncology. So far this year, MRK is the best performer among the three, yet its gains remain far behind those of a small biotech company that has been on a continuous rise since early 2026—Moderna (MRNA). This vaccine-focused company’s stock has risen a cumulative 43% year-to-date, and there are solid reasons to believe there is still significant upside ahead.
Moderna rose to prominence by successfully developing a market-leading COVID-19 vaccine, but COVID-related business is no longer its primary growth driver. Investors are now focusing more on the company’s R&D pipeline progress, and in this regard, Moderna’s recent efforts are encouraging. For example, earlier this year, the company submitted regulatory applications for its influenza vaccine in the United States, Europe, Australia, and Canada, and is currently awaiting approval.
Moderna hopes to carve out its own market space in this area, because although there are many existing flu vaccines, their effectiveness is generally low—typically ranging from 40% to 60% during peak flu seasons, or even lower. This leaves high-risk populations, especially the elderly, still facing risks of severe illness, hospitalization, and death. Studies have shown that Moderna’s mRNA-1010 flu vaccine performs better than traditional vaccines in elderly populations. If approved for market, it could achieve significant success in this space.
Furthermore, one of the company’s most promising pipeline products is mRNA-4157, an investigational personalized therapeutic cancer vaccine developed in collaboration between Moderna and MRK. In a Phase 2 clinical study, mRNA-4157 in combination with MRK’s Keytruda for the treatment of patients with advanced melanoma significantly reduced the risk of recurrence or death compared to Keytruda alone. This product is currently being studied in multiple Phase 2 and Phase 3 trials, and analysts estimate its potential sales could reach several billion dollars.
Moderna is undoubtedly an innovative vaccine company with enormous potential in its mRNA technology platform. Unlike traditional vaccines, which require cultivating large amounts of live viruses that are then attenuated and injected into the body to trigger an immune response, mRNA vaccines only require obtaining the genetic sequence of the pathogen and designing the corresponding mRNA molecule to initiate the immune process, making the development process significantly faster. This is one of the reasons mRNA vaccines dominated during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Currently, Moderna has a rich R&D pipeline spanning multiple therapeutic areas. Products in its Phase 3 pipeline, including mRNA-4157 and mRNA-1010, are expected to receive new approvals in the near future, helping the company achieve robust revenue and profitability. However, investing in Moderna also requires careful consideration of risks. As of the time of reporting, the company’s market capitalization is approximately $18 billion. For a company with first-quarter revenue of only $389 million that is not yet profitable, this valuation is relatively high. Although the mRNA platform holds promise, some positive expectations may already be priced into the stock. Setbacks in clinical trials or regulatory processes would impact the stock price, and future movements could be quite volatile. If the company continues to make progress in advancing its pipeline and maintaining financial discipline, it still holds significant growth potential for the future.
