Even before Vertex Pharmaceuticals closes its $10 billion all-cash deal for Crinetics Pharmaceuticals, attention is already shifting to the next potential target: Viking Therapeutics (VKTX). With a market capitalization of roughly $3.9 billion and a maturing pipeline in obesity, the biotech is increasingly viewed as an ideal vehicle for a large pharmaceutical company seeking an accelerated entry into endocrinology.
The numbers behind the obesity market explain the urgency. According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, more than 70% of adults are overweight or obese. Industry estimates project the weight-loss market will swell from $79 billion last year to around $190 billion by 2035. Against this backdrop, established drugmakers often prefer acquiring companies with mid- to late-stage assets rather than building therapies from scratch. Viking fits that playbook neatly.
Viking’s pipeline addresses two distinct mechanisms in weight management. The lead asset, VK2735, is a subcutaneous dual GLP-1/GIP receptor agonist in phase 3 trials; an oral formulation is expected to enter late-stage studies before year-end. In a phase 2 study, the injectable version delivered a placebo-adjusted mean weight loss of up to 13.1% over just 13 weeks, signaling a rapid onset of effect. A second candidate, VK3019, targets amylin and calcitonin receptors and recently entered phase 1 testing, aiming to activate a different appetite-regulating pathway. Viking intends to eventually pair VK2735 with VK3019, assembling a broader metabolic franchise.
The window for a deal matters. Phase 3 data for VK2735 are expected in late 2027. Strong results would likely send the stock sharply higher and make an acquisition considerably more expensive. Analysts currently have an average price target of $92.58 on Viking, implying upside of about 181% from recent levels—a reflection of the pipeline’s perceived value. Any large acquirer would have a clear incentive to move before that binary event.
The competitive landscape adds a layer of urgency for would-be buyers, and of risk for Viking. Eli Lilly’s amylin receptor agonist eloralintide produced mean weight reductions of up to 20.1% over 48 weeks in phase 2, and a phase 3 study combining eloralintide with tirzepatide is already enrolling. Novo Nordisk’s cagrilintide achieved 11.8% weight loss over 68 weeks, and its combination with semaglutide, CagriSema, has been submitted to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. Viking is entering the amylin space later, meaning it will need to demonstrate a clear edge in efficacy or tolerability to capture meaningful market share.
Viking’s stock carries a classic binary risk—the phase 3 readout will either unlock significant value or trigger a sharp decline. But the scarcity of obesity pipelines with late-stage assets, and the narrowing window before key data arrive, are keeping Viking firmly on the radar as industry consolidation accelerates.
