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Cameco Corp. (TSX: CCO; NYSE: CCJ) is poised for a sharp re-rating as Westinghouse Electric Co., the nuclear-reactor maker it bought a controlling stake in three years ago, targets a U.S. initial public offering at a valuation above $50 billion, according to people familiar with the matter.
Westinghouse could publicly file its IPO as soon as October, Bloomberg News reported Friday. That timeline is well ahead of what analysts had previously anticipated, and it would hand Cameco — which owns 49% of the company — a paper stake worth more than $24.5 billion before accounting for any shares sold in the offering or potential dilution.
The potential jump in value is striking. Cameco paid $2.1 billion (C$2.94 billion) for its stake in November 2023, when it partnered with Brookfield Renewable Partners and institutional investors to take Westinghouse private at an enterprise value of about $8.2 billion including debt. The new target valuation would imply a more than tenfold gain on Cameco’s investment in less than three years.
“A potential IPO comes a lot sooner than we previously envisioned,” Scotiabank analyst Orest Wowkodaw said after Cameco’s second-quarter results last month, noting his bank had raised medium- to long-term Westinghouse estimates.
Westinghouse’s valuation case rests on a reactor order book that has expanded markedly since Cameco entered the deal. The company has identified opportunities for as many as 91 AP1000 reactors over more than two decades, Cameco said in July. The pipeline includes as many as 20 U.S. reactors under federal programs, two units at the stalled V.C. Summer project in South Carolina, three in Poland, two each in Bulgaria and Ukraine, and dozens of earlier-stage prospects.
Cameco also lifted its estimate of the share of construction spending that could flow to Westinghouse on new AP1000 projects, now seen at 40% to 45%. Scotiabank estimates that could translate into $8 billion to $11 billion of Westinghouse revenue over roughly a decade for a typical two-reactor project.
The U.S. Department of Energy in June made a conditional commitment of as much as $17.5 billion in financing for long-lead equipment for up to 10 AP1000 reactors, a program intended to pull construction and commercial operation forward by as much as three years.
Still, the 91 reactors represent a pipeline of opportunities rather than firm orders, and a $50-billion-plus valuation would partly depend on investors assigning value today to projects that could stretch well into the 2030s. The U.S. government also holds a participation interest that, once vested, would entitle Washington to 20% of Westinghouse cash distributions above $17.5 billion and could lead to dilution of existing shareholders under certain conditions.
Even before the IPO news, sell-side estimates had been moving up but had not yet caught up to the new valuation benchmark. Desjardins, in July, valued Cameco’s share of Westinghouse at C$15.1 billion. Scotiabank, more cautious on timing, had valued the entire reactor company at C$24.6 billion, putting Cameco’s 49% interest at roughly C$12 billion. Desjardins had said the IPO window could extend as far as 2029.
Beyond Westinghouse, Cameco’s core uranium business is also strengthening. Benchmark Mineral Intelligence forecasts a uranium shortfall equal to 18% of demand by 2027, as nuclear demand begins to outrun new mine supply — much of the recent supply growth has come from restarting or expanding existing operations rather than developing new mines, which typically take 15 to 20 years.
Cameco expects average annual uranium deliveries of more than 28 million pounds between 2026 and 2030, backed by long-term contracts with financially strong nuclear utilities. Scotiabank forecasts Cameco’s free cash flow will rise to C$1.3 billion in 2028 from about C$200 million this year, setting the stage for further dividend increases after the company raised its annual payout to 24 Canadian cents from 16 cents last year.
