As AI Hype Cracks, Gold Finds Its Footing for the Next Leg Higher

Tariff Turmoil Sparks Safe-Haven Frenzy, Confirming Gold's Trend Reversal
Published on: Jul 30, 2026
Author: Caroline Kong

After months of deep correction, the gold market is demonstrating rare resilience around the $4,000 level. As cracks begin to appear in the artificial intelligence frenzy, veteran market strategists believe that capital currently being siphoned away by the tech wave is poised to flow back into precious metals, with gold’s next leg up now taking shape.

AI Frenzy: A “Giant Bubble” Detached from Reality

The current market fragmentation is eerily reminiscent of the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s. Fred Hickey, founder of The High-Tech Strategist investment newsletter, recently stated in an interview with Kitco News that we are in the midst of a “giant bubble.” He pointed out that AI-related companies now account for nearly half of the S&P 500’s market capitalization while contributing only a fraction of U.S. economic output—a dangerous disconnect between financial markets and the real economy.

Hickey believes today’s AI spending spree is becoming increasingly detached from reality. Despite tech giants pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into data centers, the anticipated productivity gains have yet to materialize. Meanwhile, a significant portion of the sector’s earnings growth stems not from sustainable end-user demand, but from accounting adjustments, deferred costs, and even circular financing arrangements between chipmakers and cloud service providers—what he calls a bubble built on “a lot of falsehoods.” The economics of generative AI are also deteriorating rapidly, with low-cost open-source models from China putting pressure on the industry’s entire pricing structure.

Gold Bottoms: A Solid Defense at the $4,000 Level

Suppressed by the AI frenzy’s suction effect, gold has endured a brutal correction. After hitting an all-time peak of approximately $5,600/oz in January, prices plunged briefly below $4,000. Yet that very level has proven to be exceptionally strong support.

Hickey observed that multiple attempts to break below $4,000 have all failed, driven by robust physical buying from Asia—particularly China. At the same time, ETF outflows have largely ceased following heavy liquidation in the spring, and futures positioning has fallen to multi-year lows, indicating that speculative excess from this correction has been effectively flushed out.

Research from the World Gold Council corroborates this trend: despite significant price declines from the start of the year, gold prices on average have posted gains during Asian trading hours, suggesting that Asian investors view the pullback as a prime entry opportunity. This “Eastern buying” is reshaping global gold pricing dynamics, moving it away from an era dominated solely by Western markets.

Capital Rotation: From Overvalued Tech Stocks to Hard Assets

Hickey emphasizes that the drivers of the current gold bull market remain intact. Central bank purchases exceeding 1,000 tonnes annually, the ongoing de-dollarization trend, widening U.S. fiscal deficits, and geopolitical tensions collectively form the structural backbone supporting gold’s long-term upside.

In his view, gold’s next major advance will likely coincide with the unwinding of AI exuberance. Just as investors rotated into hard assets after the dot-com bubble burst, when the market’s “disillusionment” with technology reaches a tipping point, a massive capital rotation will inevitably provide the final upward push for gold. For gold mining equities—trading at historically low valuations while sitting on record profits—this may well mark the starting point of a value renaissance.

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