The market may well acknowledge the view that the era of getting rich quickly through buying and holding Bitcoin (BTC) has come to an end. As an asset with a market capitalization of $1.2 trillion, the likelihood of its doubling in the short term is extremely slim. However, incorporating regular Bitcoin investments into a comprehensive wealth accumulation strategy that includes other assets still has strong justification. The core logic of this strategy lies in Bitcoin’s nature as a scarce store of value. Bitcoin’s total supply is permanently capped at 21 million coins, and the rate of new coin issuance is halved every four years, which stands in sharp contrast to the characteristic of fiat currencies, which can be issued indefinitely.
Research from Fidelity Digital Assets in March 2026 shows that over the past 15 years, 87% of Bitcoin’s price movements can be explained by changes in global M2 money supply. As currencies around the world continue to expand, finite assets including Bitcoin naturally become channels for funds flowing to hedge against depreciation. However, it should be noted that this macro transmission mechanism takes a very long time to take effect, and there is no guarantee that prices will show an upward trend at any given period. Bitcoin has seen declines of as much as 80% in bear markets, and its short-term effectiveness in hedging inflation is less than ideal.
Asset management company VanEck predicts that Bitcoin may achieve an annualized return of 15% over the next 25 years, a figure that falls between its five-year compound annual growth rate of 11.6% and its ten-year rate of 57.3%, and is considered a relatively reasonable estimate. Based on this assumption, if an investor puts $500 per month into Bitcoin and sticks with it for 25 years, the total principal invested would be $150,000, and the final asset value is expected to reach approximately $1.4 million. If the monthly contribution is reduced to $250 and the term extended to 30 years, a similar terminal value can be achieved. Both paths require the investor to keep buying during market downturns. Therefore, from a mathematical perspective, with patience and discipline, Bitcoin could indeed help investors reach the million-dollar goal, but only on the condition that the investment portfolio is sufficiently diversified to withstand the psychological and financial shocks brought by Bitcoin’s extreme volatility during the period.
Beyond the long-term outlook, the short-term market is facing new geopolitical pressures. After renewed mutual attacks between the United States and Iran, and following President Trump’s remarks at the NATO summit on July 8 that he believes the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding has “ended” and that he is unwilling to engage with Iran further, market concerns over energy supply and inflation have escalated sharply. As a result, risk appetite has been hit. As of press time, Bitcoin had fallen more than 2%, breaking below the $62,000 level, with Ethereum, Solana, and other crypto assets declining in tandem. At the same time, global stock markets continued their downward trend, with most Asian stocks falling on Wednesday, all three major U.S. stock index futures dropping pre-market, and gold futures also falling more than 2%, while Brent crude oil futures surged nearly 6% to $78.54 per barrel due to the escalating situation. Caroline Mauron, co-founder of Orbit Markets, noted that Bitcoin dropped quickly after Trump’s remarks, and the market is now concerned that rising energy prices will trigger a new round of inflation and may force central banks to raise interest rates further. She expects Bitcoin to find some support around $61,500, but the overall market will remain highly volatile as it evolves with geopolitical and macroeconomic conditions.
Despite the latest shocks, Bitcoin’s performance had improved somewhat in July after plunging nearly 18% in June, its worst monthly performance in four years. Earlier this week, Strategy (MSTR), the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin globally, disclosed the sale of $216 million worth of Bitcoin, which did not trigger any significant sell-off in the market, in contrast to the notable decline that occurred when the company first announced a sale last month. In addition, prior to the escalation of the Middle East situation, some large holders had already begun to increase their positions again. Data shows that U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have recorded net inflows for three consecutive trading days, with cumulative inflows exceeding $500 million, whereas in June, this category of funds experienced a record monthly net outflow of more than $4.5 billion.
