American Tungsten Corp. (TSXV: TUNG, OTCQB: DEMRF)
Building America’s Defense Critical Metals Supply
On Monday, Chinese DRAM manufacturer ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) officially began trading on Shanghai’s STAR Market. The company raised approximately $8.5 billion through its IPO, valuing it at roughly $85 billion — the largest listing ever by a Chinese semiconductor company on a mainland exchange. For shareholders of Micron Technology (MU), the world’s third-largest DRAM producer, the timing is delicate. Amid debates over whether the AI memory chip boom has peaked, CXMT’s arrival adds a new variable to the equation.
CXMT’s growth has indeed been remarkable. According to Omdia data, its global DRAM market share jumped from 4.7% in the fourth quarter of 2025 to 7.6% in the first quarter of 2026, propelling it to fourth place globally. Over the same period, Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron held roughly 39%, 29%, and 22% market share, respectively. This leap came as the three incumbents could not fully satisfy demand during the AI-driven memory shortage, allowing CXMT to fill the gap.
However, market share growth does not equate to a direct threat to Micron. More than 98% of CXMT’s revenue last year came from conventional DRAM — the commodity chips used in servers and smartphones. In high-bandwidth memory (HBM), the premium product stacked alongside AI accelerators, CXMT has virtually no presence. The three incumbents maintain a technological edge measured in years in this segment, and the richest profits of the current memory boom are concentrated precisely in HBM.
Micron’s financials clearly reflect this dynamic. In the fiscal third quarter of 2026 (ended May 28), Micron reported revenue of $41.5 billion, more than quadrupling year over year; net income of $28.2 billion; and operating cash flow of $25.4 billion, more than doubling sequentially. For the fiscal fourth quarter, management guided revenue of approximately $50 billion with a gross margin of roughly 86%. These numbers stem from premium pricing on advanced memory chips during a shortage — levels that commodity DRAM producers cannot match.
The real variable introduced by CXMT’s IPO lies further out on the supply side. The company plans to use the proceeds for production line upgrades and next-generation DRAM development. If the overallotment option is exercised, total funding could approach $10 billion — nearly double the company’s original investment plan. Memory chip prices are highly dependent on supply-demand dynamics, and virtually every previous memory boom has ended the same way: new capacity accumulated during the upcycle coming online all at once. CXMT’s public listing provides ample ammunition for precisely such capacity expansion.
Micron’s own cyclical history underscores this risk. During the last downturn in fiscal 2023, Micron posted a net loss of $5.8 billion — and now it earns nearly five times that amount in a single quarter. The same operating leverage cuts just as sharply in reverse when the cycle turns.
For Micron investors, a measured response to CXMT’s debut may be the wisest course. At roughly $920 per share, Micron trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of about 21x — a multiple that already reflects market expectations that current earnings surge is unsustainable. The market has never believed this boom would last forever, with or without CXMT. In the near term, CXMT’s absence from the HBM market means Micron’s core profit pool remains safe. But over the long term, this massive funding injection will undoubtedly accelerate the pace at which China’s DRAM industry plays catch-up. The tug-of-war between bulls and bears has only just begun.
