Banyan Gold Corp. (TSXV: BYN, OTCQB: BYAGF)
The New Yukon Gold Rush - TARGETING 5 MILLION OZ. AT 1+ G/T
Gold held above the $4,000 mark in cautious trading Wednesday, as investors squared positions ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision. Spot bullion edged down 0.27% to $4,017.10 an ounce. The dollar index firmed to 101.64 and the 10-year Treasury yield stood at 4.62%, while a flare-up in Middle East tensions sent crude oil surging more than 4%.
Brent touched $85.79 a barrel and WTI climbed to $83.04 after Jordanian and U.S. forces intercepted a fresh Iranian missile barrage, reigniting chokepoint risk in the Strait of Hormuz. The jump in oil helped keep a floor under inflation expectations and yields, capping gold’s upside even as geopolitical unease lent support.
The question for gold bulls now is whether the deep retreat in the world’s largest gold ETF marks a buying opportunity. The SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) fell 1.4% on Wednesday to $369.37, leaving the fund down roughly 25% from its peak after a 64% surge last year. Assets under management remained at $132 billion, with a 0.40% expense ratio.
All eyes were on the FOMC decision and Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference. Rates are widely expected to stay unchanged, but fed funds futures assigned about a one-in-three chance of a hike on the day, and a September increase was largely priced in. Consumer prices rose at an annualized 3.5% in June — well above the Fed’s 2% target — keeping the pressure on Warsh to sound hawkish.
For gold, the math is two-sided. A geopolitical bid is supporting prices, but firm yields and a steady dollar are limiting gains for the non-yielding metal. The early session range for gold was $4,009.60 to $4,048.80, leaving the metal below the $4,066 breakout level that short-term traders are watching.
Longer-term, the bull case rests on scarcity and inflation. Total mined gold stands at 219,890 metric tons, with annual supply growing at a sluggish 1.5%. Since the U.S. left the gold standard in 1971, the dollar has shed roughly 90% of its purchasing power, driving gold steadily higher in dollar terms. The current picture adds fiscal fuel: a $1.8 trillion federal deficit in fiscal 2025, another trillion-plus shortfall expected this year, and a national debt approaching $40 trillion. Hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones has repeatedly warned that governments may inflate away their debt burdens — a structural tailwind for gold.
The near-term risk is that Warsh signals rates will stay higher for longer. If the Fed is forced to keep tightening, gold’s most immediate catalyst fades. But pullbacks have historically opened long-term entry points. Gold’s 50-year compound annual return is about 7.4%; last year’s 64% rally was an anomaly. For investors willing to bet on sticky inflation and eventual debt monetization, the consolidation near $4,000 could be a moment to revisit gold ETF positions.
Markets now await the Fed statement, Warsh’s tone on inflation and labor-market risks, and readings on GDP and PCE inflation. Any deviation from expectations could quickly push gold out of its $4,000–$4,066 range.
