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In August 2026, SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) experienced a breathtaking roller-coaster ride. Since the first trading day of the month, the stock has rallied nearly 30%, recently trading at around $141, firmly reclaiming its IPO price of $135. Yet just three weeks ago, the picture was entirely different.
Strong Earnings, Yet a “Beat-Down” on Results
On August 4, SpaceX delivered its first quarterly report since going public. Revenue for the second quarter of 2026 reached $7.814 billion, up 92% year over year and surpassing market expectations of approximately $6.9 billion.
By segment, connectivity revenue – primarily from Starlink – came in at $4.291 billion, up 66% year over year; AI business revenue jumped 247% to $2.561 billion; and space business revenue reached $962 million. Among the three segments, Starlink was the only profitable one, posting operating income of $1.656 billion, while the AI and space businesses recorded operating losses of $1.257 billion and $542 million, respectively.
What unsettled the market was capital expenditure. Total capex in the second quarter hit $18.4 billion, with AI-related spending accounting for $15.8 billion, or 86% of the total. Despite adjusted EBITDA rising 191% year over year to $3.5 billion and net loss narrowing from $1.008 billion a year earlier to $541 million, the pace of AI “cash burn” still sparked concern, sending the stock down 13.6% in a single session following the earnings release.
Lockup Expiration “Tsunami” Gets Digested
An even greater test soon followed. On August 7, SpaceX saw its first batch of lock-up shares released, with approximately 911.5 million shares entering the float, more than doubling the public float. The market had widely feared that a flood of supply would crush the stock price.
The outcome, however, was surprising. During the lockup expiration week, SpaceX rallied for two consecutive sessions, gaining roughly 23% cumulatively and sending the stock back near its IPO price. Short interest plummeted from a peak of 34% to about 11%, with short covering further fueling the rebound.
Additional tranches of lock-up shares are still due to be released between August and October, meaning potential selling pressure has not yet been fully cleared.
41 Times Sales: Expensive or Not?
SpaceX currently commands a market capitalization of approximately $1.9 trillion, corresponding to a price-to-sales ratio of about 41. If valued as an aerospace company, this multiple is somewhat defensible – Rocket Lab trades at a forward P/S of around 61. If viewed as an AI infrastructure company, however, it is far above CoreWeave’s roughly 3x level.
The key point of contention is: what exactly is the market paying for? Some argue that SpaceX’s triple assets – Starlink, AI computing power, and space launch – can no longer be measured by any single-industry benchmark. Analysts project that by 2027, its AI business could generate $50 billion in annual recurring revenue, which will be the critical variable in whether the valuation thesis holds.
Can SpaceX Join the “Magnificent Seven”?
SpaceX’s market cap has already surpassed that of Meta and Tesla, sparking discussions on Wall Street about revisiting the “Magnificent Seven” lineup. Some strategists have proposed a new “MANGOS” grouping (Meta, Anthropic, Nvidia, Alphabet, OpenAI, SpaceX), attempting to redefine the leadership map of the tech sector.
But at current valuation levels, SpaceX’s stock price has already fully priced in high-growth expectations, meaning any quarterly miss could trigger sharp volatility. As one analyst put it: “Investors are not betting on today’s revenue – they’re betting on whether Musk can deliver on a business empire spanning space, AI, and global communications five years from now.”
