Archer Aviation (NYSE: ACHR) has climbed from around $4.50 to nearly $7 over the past month, a gain of roughly 50%. The sharp move follows a prolonged decline that left the electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) developer down over 30% over the past year. The central question for investors is whether the rally marks a genuine shift in the company’s trajectory or simply a rebound from deeply depressed levels.
The immediate catalyst was a partnership with Boeing. Under the agreement, Boeing transferred three subsidiaries — Wisk, Skygrid, and Insitu — to Archer, covering advanced air traffic management, drones, and eVTOL technology. In exchange, Boeing received a 20% stake in Archer’s outstanding common stock, along with warrants that can be exercised if the share price continues to rise. For Archer, the deal brings not only revenue but also the backing of an aerospace giant, which could help integrate its urban air mobility technology into existing aviation ecosystems.
Separately, Archer announced in July a collaboration with defense contractor Anduril Technologies to develop eVTOL products for military applications. Investors viewed the defense angle as a clearer and faster path to demand than civilian urban air mobility, adding further momentum to the stock.
Despite the strategic wins, Archer remains deeply cash-flow negative. Free cash flow over the past 12 months was negative $615 million, with almost no revenue. The company posted a loss of $800 million on revenue of just $6.9 million over the past year. Its market capitalization is estimated at $4.8 billion to $5.2 billion, with an enterprise value of about $3.8 billion. Cash reserves provide some runway, but further capital raises are likely.
Analyst revenue projections point to significant expected growth: $15 million in 2026, $143 million in 2027, $511 million in 2028, and $1.392 billion in 2029. The broader eVTOL market remains in its early stages, with Archer and rival Joby Aviation together commanding a combined market value of about $13 billion. Joby has lost roughly half its value over the past year, while Archer is down about 10% in 2026 and nearly 30% over the last 12 months.
Archer’s Midnight aircraft has attracted interest from some airlines as a premium short-haul option and has been designated the official air taxi provider for the 2028 Olympic Games in Los Angeles. The U.S. Air Force is also evaluating potential military applications.
Still, the recent 50% surge appears to carry the hallmarks of an oversold bounce. The stock had fallen from a 52-week high of $14.62 to around $4.30 before rebounding. While the Boeing investment and defense collaboration support the long-term story, Archer has yet to bring a regulator-certified product to market, revenue remains negligible, and free cash flow is deeply negative. A genuine trend reversal will require visible progress on certification and revenue generation, not just partnership announcements.
