After hitting new highs, copper prices have retreated, mainly due to technical profit-taking triggered by the phased easing of squeeze pressure in the LME market. However, the overall supply-demand pattern in the copper market has not fundamentally changed. U.S. tariff policies remain unresolved, leading to continued inventory accumulation in the U.S. market, while other regions globally face dual support from mine-side production cuts and tight spot supplies. The fundamental landscape presents a diverging pattern of looser conditions domestically and tighter conditions externally. Institutional views generally agree that supply-side constraints will keep copper prices running at elevated levels, and short-term market volatility may intensify as tariff policies are implemented and inventory dynamics shift.
Copper futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange (Comex) touched a fresh all-time high again in early trading on Wednesday, before paring gains under profit-taking pressure. Earlier signs of easing in the London market squeeze prompted some investors to exit at elevated levels. Nonetheless, copper supply outside the United States remains tight ahead of the U.S. tariff decision. As of Wednesday morning New York time, the Comex copper futures contract for September delivery was quoted at $6.6070 per pound, down 1.6% from the intraday record high of $6.7775 per pound (approximately $14,940 per metric ton). The contract settled at $6.7140 per pound on Tuesday, already the highest settlement record in history.
On the London Metal Exchange (LME), the three-month copper contract was quoted at $14,350 per metric ton at 1:03 p.m. local time, roughly flat from the previous day, after rising as much as 0.6% earlier in the session. Although the contract posted its highest-ever closing price on Tuesday, it still has not surpassed the intraday record high of $14,527.50 per metric ton set in January this year.
The LME cash copper premium over the three-month futures contract had exceeded $500 per metric ton at one point over the past week, but this extreme spread has partially corrected, narrowing to $127 at Tuesday’s settlement. However, tightness in nearby contracts persists: the spread between the exchange’s September and October contracts rose to around $100 per metric ton on Wednesday, up from less than $50 at the end of last week, indicating that immediately deliverable physical copper remains difficult to obtain. Inventory data also show divergence: on Monday, LME warehouses added more than 50,000 metric tons of copper cancellation warrants (withdrawal requests), while registered warehouse stocks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell for the sixth consecutive day. In contrast, Comex copper inventories have increased for 46 consecutive trading days and are currently at a record high of over 675,000 metric tons, as the market continues to await the White House’s ruling on copper tariffs, a decision that has been in the works for nearly two months.
Mine-side supply has also shown no signs of easing. According to data from consultancy Project Blue, global copper mine production losses totaled approximately 338,000 metric tons in the first half of this year, driven by production disruptions in Indonesia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Chile. Based on this, the Commodity Research Unit (CRU) believes that its forecast of a 639,000-metric-ton surplus in the global copper market for 2026 is now overly optimistic and can only be regarded as a tight balance at present. Robert Edwards, CRU’s chief copper analyst, stated that if imports continue at their current pace, the actual market could show a deficit pattern. Alice Fox, a strategist at Macquarie Bank, believes that digesting Comex’s record inventories will take “several years.” Fu Xiao of Bank of China International expects copper prices to hit fresh record highs in the coming weeks or months. Jinrui Futures pointed out in a report that copper prices remain supported by their own fundamentals, and believes that Shanghai Futures Exchange copper prices have strong support near 106,000 yuan per metric ton (approximately $15,770), with current copper prices trading around 109,000 yuan per metric ton.
