ASML Holding (ASML) is emerging as an indispensable player in the AI memory supercycle. Samsung Electronics, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, and Intel are all moving forward with ASML’s latest High-NA extreme ultraviolet lithography systems, reinforcing the supply outlook for next-generation AI chips and solidifying the Dutch equipment maker’s central role.
Samsung plans to use High-NA systems for memory production by 2028, while TSMC has set 2030 as its adoption target. Intel Foundry is already using the technology in high-volume manufacturing. At the same time, the three companies are working with ASML on a transition from today’s 6-inch photomasks to 12-inch versions. ASML Chief Technology Officer Marco Pieters said the larger masks could boost High-NA machine throughput by 40%, calling it a major step forward in productivity.
TSMC’s decision carries particular weight. According to Bloomberg data, the Taiwanese chipmaker accounts for roughly 16% of ASML’s revenue. TSMC CEO C.C. Wei said in a statement that the company has always believed in collaboration to overcome technical barriers before they become economic obstacles for the semiconductor industry. TSMC will adopt High-NA systems based on current 6-inch masks starting in 2030, and will work with ASML to build a 12-inch photomask test line by 2031, targeting the use of 12-inch mask technology in High-NA production by 2033.
Underpinning this equipment upgrade wave is an explosive memory market. ASML management disclosed on the July earnings call that memory accounted for 49% of system sales in the second quarter, and the company expects a 75% increase in memory-related net system sales in 2026. That growth is driven by strong demand for high-bandwidth memory and dynamic random-access memory, both of which play irreplaceable roles in AI data centers. Micron has said its 2026 HBM capacity is already sold out, with customers signing multi-year supply agreements to lock in long-term production.
Capital expenditure trends confirm the momentum. Deloitte estimates that major memory manufacturers could increase capital spending by 67% this year to $97 billion, followed by another 50% jump in 2027 to $146 billion. The supply-demand imbalance in memory is expected to persist through the end of the decade, providing ASML with a steady stream of orders.
ASML’s longer-term resilience compared with Micron and SanDisk comes down to one factor: monopoly power. ASML is the only supplier of EUV lithography machines, which memory makers rely on to reduce production costs and fabricate higher-performance, lower-power advanced chips. That pricing power leaves room for margin expansion. Micron and SanDisk, by contrast, already operate at elevated margin levels, making further gains more difficult.
In the current memory supercycle, market attention has largely focused on direct beneficiaries among memory producers. But on the equipment side, ASML—with its irreplaceable technology moat and improving profit structure—may turn out to be the biggest winner of all.
