Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is exchanging warrants for large chip orders from OpenAI and Meta (META), deeply binding customer interests to its own sales. After the stock price broke above $600, the key to warrant vesting has shifted from the share price to whether the GPUs can be delivered on schedule. If all 12 gigawatts of orders materialize, AMD will add at least $120 billion in revenue, but existing shareholders also face about 16% equity dilution. Management believes the extra profit will be enough to offset the dilution, while the current stock price has already priced in some of the expectations in advance, and future delivery progress will become the core test of whether this deal succeeds.
In October 2025, AMD agreed to supply up to 6 gigawatts of artificial intelligence chips to OpenAI and granted OpenAI a warrant to purchase up to 160 million AMD shares at an exercise price of just $0.01 per share. In February of this year, Meta Platforms also signed a similar agreement for up to 6 gigawatts and received a comparable warrant arrangement.
The two warrant structures are almost identical, each covering up to 160 million shares with an exercise price of one cent. The first tranche of shares vests as the customer deploys its first gigawatt of AMD Instinct graphics processing units, and all 160 million shares will vest fully only when purchases reach 6 gigawatts. A gigawatt measures data center power consumption, so deployment scale is calculated by power rather than by the number of chips. Each tranche also has a stock price threshold, with the final tranche set at $600. OpenAI’s warrant additionally includes a separate stock price performance condition, and both customers must meet technical and commercial conditions before vested shares can be exercised. OpenAI’s warrant is valid until October 5, 2030, and Meta’s warrant until February 23, 2031.
When the OpenAI deal was announced, AMD’s stock price was near $165, making the $600 threshold appear distant. But the stock closed above $600 for the first time on September 21 and was trading at about $616 at the time of writing. At that price, 320 million shares are worth about $197 billion. As of June 27, AMD’s latest quarterly filing showed that no warrant shares had yet vested, which is not surprising because shipments for the first gigawatt for both customers were originally scheduled to begin in the second half of this year. However, with the stock price breaking above $600, GPU deliveries now matter more to vesting than the share price.
According to AMD’s second-quarter 10-Q filing, the company had about 1.63 billion shares outstanding as of July 29. Adding 320 million shares would raise the total to about 1.95 billion shares. In other words, OpenAI and Meta could ultimately hold about 16% of the enlarged company. The existing claim of each share on AMD’s profits will decline by about 16%, with the same profit spread across more shares. Buybacks help only limitedly. AMD repurchased only $221 million of stock in the first half of 2026, and the remaining $9.2 billion authorization as of June 27 could repurchase only about 15 million shares at about $616 each. At the same time, AMD’s all-stock acquisition of AI research lab World Labs for about $8.2 billion could add about 13 million more shares at current prices.
Warrant shares will appear only after the GPUs are actually shipped. AMD Chief Executive Officer Lisa Su said on the second-quarter earnings call in August that revenue per gigawatt remains in the “tens of billions of dollars” range. Even at the low end of that range, 12 gigawatts would mean at least $120 billion in revenue before all warrant shares vest. That is more than seven times AMD’s data center segment revenue of $16.6 billion for all of 2025.
AMD’s stock trades at about 40 times analysts’ expected 2027 earnings. If the 320 million warrant shares already existed, the price-to-earnings ratio would be close to 47 times on the same profit. The stock price has also already crossed the $600 threshold set for the final tranche. But at about $616 per share, investors are paying for gigawatts that AMD still needs to deliver over the coming years.
