In the just-concluded August, Bitcoin (BTC) closed the month with a gain of approximately 25%, marking the first positive August record since 2021. This performance is second only to the 65.6% in 2017 and the 30.7% in 2013, ranking as the third-best in history. However, entering September 1, the BTC price has retreated to around $77,000, and the market has entered a brief consolidation phase. Data from Bitwise confirmed the previous strong rebound, but the core question that follows is: as the market steps into September, historically the weakest-performing month, can this rally, driven by macro liquidity, sustain itself? This has become the focal point of investor attention.
From a historical statistical perspective, bulls do face severe challenges in September. Long-term tracking data from CoinGlass shows that September is one of the worst months for Bitcoin performance, with historical average returns ranging between -3% and -4%. In years when August posted significant gains, September often witnessed sharp profit-taking. Statistics from Dow Jones Market Data also indicate that since 2014, Bitcoin’s average decline in September has been approximately 2.2%. However, it is not rigorous to directly equate seasonal patterns with market laws. The current market structure is vastly different from the past; the introduction of spot ETFs, deep institutional participation, and changes in macro liquidity have collectively formed a new pricing logic.
The core engine driving the August surge was not mere speculation, but rather the macro narrative based on the “dollar credit trade.” On August 19, the U.S. Treasury Department announced that, effective September 9, the single-operation limit for long-term Treasury bond liquidity repurchases would be raised from $2 billion to $4 billion. This move was interpreted by the market as a clear signal to curb long-term bond yields and improve liquidity. As fiscal account funds were released, the correlation between Bitcoin and gold rose to a six-year high, and the “currency depreciation trade” once again became a market theme.
However, entering September, the macro environment has grown more complex. The Federal Reserve Chair struck a hawkish tone at the late-August Jackson Hole conference, expressing greater concern over inflation than employment. As of September 1, driven by rising oil prices and climbing bond yields, market expectations for a Fed rate hike in September intensified sharply, with the probability rising to approximately 68%, and the 10-year Treasury yield once spiked to 4.798%. Given that the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting is scheduled for September 15-16, if inflation leads to policy tightening, the August liquidity-trade logic could be reversed.
Regarding September’s trajectory, analysts have outlined three possible scenarios. A breakout after high-level consolidation is the more probable case: as long as the bullish defense line of $73,000 to $75,000 is not effectively breached, and ETF inflows continue, BTC may trade within the $75,000 to $83,000 range before retesting that level, with the next target potentially pointing toward the $92,000 to $100,000 zone. Under the consolidation-and-washout scenario, given August’s considerable gains, the market could enter a large-range consolidation in mid-September to absorb profit-taking. The risk scenario, however, is as follows: if oil prices surge, the Fed confirms a rate hike, and ETFs see sustained net outflows, then after BTC breaks below $73,000, the August rally could devolve into a short-covering bounce, with the next support level near $68,900.
