Bernstein does not believe that the explosive popularity of Muse, the consumer-grade AI agent launched by Meta (META), means that the traditional financial industry will quickly be replaced by AI agents. In the early stages of development, AI agents are more likely to first address 90% of the friction in complex processes, rather than immediately redefining everyday retail checkout or traditional financial services. The three major factors truly limiting the large-scale adoption of AI agents are not model capabilities, but consumer trust, data access, and regulatory rules. Traditional financial institutions will not wait passively. Many companies may launch their own AI agents or partner with third-party platforms, and may even sacrifice some existing revenue to reduce the risk of customer attrition.
After launching, Muse quickly topped the U.S. app stores, with downloads reaching 2.8 million. Consumers have begun using it for tasks such as making appointments, ordering food, tracking airfare prices, canceling subscriptions, comparing insurance products, filling out forms, and contacting customer service. Bernstein believes it is only a matter of time before other frontier AI models and technology companies follow suit with consumer-grade AI agents, and a “consumer AI agent race” is taking shape.
This change has already been quickly reflected in financial markets. Since Muse was launched, the share prices of some financial sectors, including insurance, brokerages, banks, and mortgage institutions, have fallen by 5% to 15% cumulatively. However, Bernstein believes that the market’s “doomsday scenario” surrounding AI agents disrupting the financial industry is too simplistic. What truly determines whether AI agents can change the financial services industry on a large scale is not whether the technology can complete tasks, but whether consumers are willing to hand financial decisions over to AI, whether financial institutions will allow it to access data, and whether accountability and regulatory rules can keep up.
Despite the enormous potential impact, Bernstein believes that third-party AI agents still face a core contradiction: without the participation of merchants and financial service providers, it is difficult for AI agents to achieve large-scale adoption; but if participation means losing the checkout entry point, customer relationships, or part of their economic interests, these companies have no incentive to open up fully. Amazon’s (AMZN) blocking of Muse is a typical case, and the online insurance platform Insurify also blocked Muse on the grounds that AI automatically scraping insurance quotes may omit key information.
Trust is likewise a core challenge. A TD Bank survey shows that 55% of respondents have used AI to help manage finances, but only 18% are willing to let AI make important financial decisions independently. Other surveys also show that the vast majority of consumers are only willing to let AI act within limits approved by themselves or preset in advance.
Unlike market concerns that AI agents will disrupt banks, insurers, and brokerages, Bernstein’s judgment on the payments industry is clearly more optimistic. The report argues that AI agent commerce is generally viewed as a potential threat to Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA), but the actual situation may be the opposite. As AI agents bring more digital transactions, and as demand grows for value-added services such as identity authentication and risk management, payment networks may instead become beneficiaries. The two companies have more than 7 billion payment credentials and cover more than 100 million merchants. In the era of AI agents, credit cards may still become the main payment method. Bernstein gives Visa and Mastercard “Outperform” ratings, with target prices of $450 and $710, respectively.
The outlook for digital wallets is more complex. Bernstein points out that if consumers let AI agents complete payments directly, frictions such as “guest checkout” in traditional e-commerce may no longer matter, which could weaken part of the traditional value of digital wallets.
