Brent crude is already trading at a hot three-digit clip, and Bank of America says the market could get far uglier if critical oil infrastructure takes a lasting hit. Francisco Blanch, the bank’s commodities and derivatives research head, said Brent could reach $150 a barrel if strategic assets such as Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline are damaged on a more permanent basis. The warning lands as traders balance a still-volatile Middle East, tightening fuel flows and a fresh debate over how much spare supply can actually cushion the next shock.
The market has not waited for a full-blown supply catastrophe to start repricing risk. On Sept. 14, Brent’s November ICE contract rose 2.11% to $106.82 a barrel as of 08:24 CEST, while West Texas Intermediate’s October CME contract gained 2.24% to $102.29. A week earlier, on Sept. 8, Brent closed up 0.95% at $97.92. The move shows how quickly crude has moved from a policy story to a live stress test for global supply chains.
BofA’s message is not that $150 is the base case. It is that the ceiling rises sharply if the wrong infrastructure is hit for long enough. Blanch said, “If the skirmishes limiting oil flows continue until the end of the year, Brent could trade in a range of $95 to $120 per barrel. Meanwhile, a broader conflict causing significant damage to energy infrastructure could send prices up to $150 per barrel.” In other words, the bank sees a ladder of outcomes, with the highest rung reserved for damage that lasts and spreads.
The Saudi variable matters because the East-West pipeline lets the kingdom export crude without relying on the Strait of Hormuz. That makes the line a major pressure valve for a market already obsessing over shipping routes and regional security. If that pipeline is impaired, the usual argument that Saudi Arabia can reroute barrels around the strait becomes much less comforting. That is why the bank, and apparently traders, are watching the line’s status as closely as the broader conflict itself.
BofA has already shifted its price view upward. On Sept. 8, the bank raised its second-half 2026 Brent forecast from $76 to $83. Blanch later said, “Given the persistence of the dislocations, we revise our base-case forecast for Brent to $83 per barrel in H2 2026 and $75 per barrel in 2027.” That tells investors the bank sees recent disruption as durable enough to force a reset, even if it stops short of calling for a sustained supply panic.
The base case still assumes gradual normalization of flows through the Strait of Hormuz. But BofA’s own alternative scenarios show how thin that assumption can be. In a mid-case where disruptions persist to year-end, the bank sees Brent trading between $95 and $120 a barrel. In the worst case, where energy infrastructure takes widespread damage, BofA says Brent can reach $150. The gap between those outcomes is less about demand and more about whether supply routes stay functional.
That distinction matters because the crude market tends to react first to logistics, then to fundamentals. If barrels cannot move, refiners scramble, shipping costs climb and prompt prices can overshoot even when the long-term supply picture still looks manageable. BofA’s framework is essentially a warning that the market may be underpricing route risk, especially if traders assume every outage will be short-lived or reversible.
Danske Bank analysts are watching the reopening or status of Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline as the immediate variable. That may sound narrow, but crude markets often turn on one narrow question: can export infrastructure absorb the shock? If the answer is yes, price spikes can fade. If the answer is no, the market has to revalue not just barrels, but the reliability of the entire regional export system. That is the kind of shift that turns a temporary rally into a structural repricing.
The concern also comes as BofA flags a separate spillover in refined products. The bank sees a possible diesel-price spike from demand rationing “at the end of October,” with ICE gasoil potentially moving to $1,600 to $1,800 a tonne. That adds another layer to the story. Even if headline crude does not keep surging, the fuel chain can still tighten, and consumers feel that in freight, heating and industrial input costs. The risk is not just a crude chart spike. It is a broader squeeze across energy markets.
For investors, the immediate question is whether the current rally is being driven by a short-term geopolitical premium or something more durable. BofA’s answer is both: prices are already elevated, and the bank’s scenario map leaves room for a far larger jump if infrastructure damage escalates. The market does not need to believe in $150 oil to trade nervously; it only needs to believe that the path to lower prices is now more fragile.
That leaves policymakers and traders in the same uncomfortable position. They need to monitor not only conflict headlines, but the physical condition of the pipelines, ports and shipping lanes that keep crude moving. BofA’s analysis suggests the highest-risk outcome is not simply a bigger conflict, but one that leaves key energy assets impaired long enough to disrupt exports well beyond the usual headline cycle.
For now, the market is pricing that possibility with every fresh move in Brent and WTI. The bigger message from BofA is that the next oil shock may not come from demand at all. It may come from the failure of the infrastructure that still stands between a regional flare-up and a global supply crunch.
