The Bitcoin market is undergoing a profound paradigm shift, with its traditional four-year cycle logic gradually giving way to a six- to eight-year Wall Street-style rhythm. Analysts generally believe that the core of this transformation lies in the reshaping of asset pricing power by macroeconomic factors. Since the completion of Bitcoin’s halving in April 2024, the block reward has been reduced to 3.125 Bitcoin (BTC), and the annual new supply has shrunk to approximately 164,250 coins, accounting for only 0.82% of the total circulating supply. According to data compiled by Woofun AI, by the next halving in 2028, the annual new supply will further decline to 82,125 coins, with the proportion dropping to 0.41%, indicating a significant diminishing trend in the supply shock effect.
At the same time, the influence of institutional channels is rising sharply. Channels including exchange-traded products and corporate bonds have accumulated holdings of over 2.7 million Bitcoin, a scale more than 16 times the total annual output of miners. As a large amount of Bitcoin becomes deposited in corporate balance sheets and regulated investment products, the marginal impact of new miner supply on the market continues to weaken, and institutional holdings have replaced miner output as the core variable dominating the market.
Against this backdrop, credit conditions, global liquidity, and capital flows in investment portfolios are gradually replacing halving events as the core drivers of market prices. Monetary policy and investor psychological expectations are intertwined, rendering the traditional four-year cycle regularity only of reference value. Although the six- to eight-year cycle theory has not yet been fully confirmed, it clearly reflects the new operational logic that Bitcoin has exhibited after deep financialization.
In the face of increasingly severe fiscal pressures in the United States, Anthony Pompliano has defined Bitcoin and artificial intelligence (AI) as the best investment portfolio for the next 20 years. At present, the U.S. federal government debt has exceeded $40 trillion, with annual interest payments surpassing $1 trillion, which greatly compresses the Federal Reserve’s room for monetary policy maneuvering. In his analysis on September 3, Pompliano pointed out that central banks may be forced to assume the debt burden through quantitative easing (QE), and Bitcoin, with its fixed supply cap of 21 million coins and a programmatic inflation rate below 1% after the fourth halving, is becoming an effective private capital hedge against currency devaluation.
Data compiled by Woofun AI also shows that capital expenditure in the artificial intelligence infrastructure sector maintained growth throughout 2026, with strong demand for semiconductors and specialized energy supply. Matt Hogan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise, confirmed this logic in early September, stating that holding both assets can effectively balance the opposing forces of currency depreciation and technological change. Pompliano emphasized that Bitcoin’s core value lies in hedging inflation risk, while AI amplifies the productivity dividends brought by automation, and the two complement each other based on entirely different operating principles. This strategy is designed to address policy uncertainty: fiscal stimulus benefits AI corporate profits, while currency depreciation boosts Bitcoin’s safe-haven value. Looking ahead, the CPI data to be released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics in mid-month, followed by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) discussions on benchmark interest rate adjustments, will serve as key observational indicators for testing this macro-hedging logic.
In summary, the Bitcoin market is undergoing a profound transformation from halving-driven dynamics to macro-liquidity-driven dynamics, with its price cycle extended to six to eight years, and the dominant position of institutional holdings causing the influence of miner supply to progressively weaken. Against this backdrop, in the face of federal debt pressures exceeding $40 trillion, Pompliano’s proposed “Bitcoin plus artificial intelligence” portfolio strategy aims to hedge against currency depreciation risk through Bitcoin while capturing the productivity dividends brought by technological change through AI, so as to address fiscal and monetary policy uncertainties. In the future, the upcoming CPI data and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions will be the key touchstones for testing this new logic.
