Weekly Market Recap (September 5) – Copper Set for Tenth Consecutive Weekly Gain

Weekly Market Recap (September 5) - Copper Set for Tenth Consecutive Weekly Gain
Published on: Sep 4, 2026

Copper prices climbed on Friday, putting the metal on track for its tenth straight weekly advance—the longest such streak since 1994—as tightening inventories outside the United States and persistent mine-supply weakness continued to underpin the market. Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.5% to $14,405 a metric ton, within striking distance of the record high of $14,527.50 set in January. The contract was headed for a weekly gain of 0.8%, extending a rally that has run uninterrupted for more than two months.

The immediate driver behind the move is a sharp drawdown in available metal beyond U.S. borders. American copper imports hit an all-time high in July as traders positioned ahead of possible tariffs on refined copper, pulling metal into U.S. warehouses and leaving other regions short. Data from the Shanghai Futures Exchange on Friday showed copper inventories fell 13% from the previous week to 63,000 tons, the lowest since January 2024. On the LME, copper stocks declined by 475 tons, with another 1,550 tons of cancelations signaling further withdrawals.

In the March episode of METALS 100, we were honored to invite Gordon Aldcorn, President of Prismo Metals (CSE:PRIZOTCQB:PMOMF), to join us for a conversation, bringing us the latest updates on the company’s development and sharing details of its projects as well as its share price performance. Prismo Metals is a mining exploration company focused on advancing the exploration and development of its Silver King, Ripsey and Hot Breccia projects in Arizona and its Palos Verdes silver project in Mexico.

Tariff uncertainty remains a key force shaping trade flows. Expectations that Washington may impose duties on refined copper imports have accelerated the movement of metal into the United States, tightening supply elsewhere. BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, noted that tariff concerns should continue to support prices, though the already elevated level may cap near-term gains.

Beneath the trade distortions lies a deeper structural problem: global mine output is falling short of expectations. International Copper Study Group data show production declined 1.1% in the first half of the year, with major producers including Chile’s Codelco and Freeport-McMoRan posting double-digit drops. Morgan Stanley, which began the year expecting mine supply to expand, now sees output flat or slightly lower—potentially the first annual contraction since 2017.

Chile has been at the center of the disappointing performance. The country’s second-quarter copper production was the weakest for that period in at least 19 years, prompting a second consecutive downward revision to its full-year forecast, now projecting a 2.6% decline. Large mining companies tracked by Jefferies, accounting for roughly two-thirds of global supply, saw first-half output fall 3.5%, with a 4.1% drop in the second quarter. The Democratic Republic of Congo offered a rare bright spot, with first-half copper exports up more than 4%, supported by Chinese-backed operations including CMOC’s Tenke Fungurume and Kisanfu mines.

Analysts remain broadly constructive on the outlook. Citigroup forecast copper could reach $15,000 a ton by year-end, with potential to climb toward $17,000 if manufacturing recovers or demand from the energy transition and data centers exceeds expectations. Evy Hambro, global head of thematic and sector investing at BlackRock, described the market as “very, very tight,” citing declining ore grades, aging assets and a lack of new supply. Anglo American Chief Operating Officer Ruben Fernandes echoed that view, saying demand growth would outpace supply in the coming years and keep prices elevated.

With mine output recovery likely to take years and permitting timelines for new projects stretching toward the end of the decade, the supply picture offers little immediate relief. Unless demand weakens sharply or hidden inventories flood the market, copper looks set to remain firmly supported at high levels.

Base Metals Copper Industrial Metals Silver