Bitcoin is currently at a critical juncture in the battle between bulls and bears. Inflows into spot ETFs provide some support, but hedging sentiment in the options market and macro headwinds continue to elevate downside risks.
Jesse Mare, a senior portfolio manager at digital asset investment firm Hilbert Group, issued a warning in a market analysis report released on October 26 that once the price effectively breaks below $75,500, the bullish setup formed from the summer low will face structural damage. Data shows that Bitcoin has fallen for five consecutive days, with a weekly decline of 5.4%, and downward pressure on the market continues to intensify.
At the beginning of the week, Bitcoin’s price was still around $84,800. Dragged down by a stock market selloff and rising oil prices, the price fell back to the $79,200 range. The $78,500 to $79,500 range is the current core support zone, and whether this zone holds directly determines whether the short-term consolidation can continue. If support is lost, $75,500 will become the decisive threshold; if the price reclaims $81,400, the market is expected to return to the consolidation range, and after breaking through the two resistance levels of $85,000 and $87,500, the rebound target could point to $95,000 to $98,000.
Market fund flows have shown clear divergence. Statistics from Woofun AI show that U.S. spot BTC ETFs (IBIT) recorded overall net inflows of about $442 million this week. Even with a single-day outflow of $635 million on Thursday, overall funds still showed a reversal in flow amid the selloff. In contrast, in the options market, the DVol index on the Deribit platform rose to 38, and the implied volatility of put options was significantly higher than that of call options, indicating a sharp increase in investors’ willingness to hedge downside risks.
Macro headwinds continue to suppress risk assets. Brent crude oil prices once approached $117 per barrel before edging slightly lower. Technology stocks also weakened in tandem. Nvidia (NVDA) fell about 8% this week, and Meta (META) fell 9%, further dragging down crypto asset prices.
Amid intensified market volatility, Ark Invest reduced its holdings in its ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) in late October, with the reduction amounting to about $15.9 million. This operation occurred after Bitcoin lost the psychological threshold of $80,000. Although the institution witnessed Bitcoin gains of more than 40% in the third quarter, the price pullback in October forced the institution to make tactical adjustments to its portfolio.
Woofun AI data shows that this reduction stemmed from the fund’s compliance rebalancing mechanism. The institution stipulates that a single asset position must not exceed 10% of the fund’s total assets. Cutting ARKB holdings was only to maintain the compliance red line, not a long-term bearish view on cryptocurrencies. This ETF has accumulated net inflows of $1.1 billion since listing, with assets under management of about $2.9 billion, but its scale will change with coin price fluctuations and investor redemptions. At the same time, this reduction was only targeted at ARKB holdings and does not represent a broad downward adjustment by Ark Invest to its overall Bitcoin exposure.
