The current memory market rally is driven by AI server demand, with HBM as the core growth driver, while rigid supply-side constraints prolong the price increase cycle. In the near term, leading South Korean manufacturers still hold a dominant market position, and Chinese memory companies remain in the technology catch-up phase, with market share gains still requiring time.
Goldman Sachs held an expert conference call on the DRAM and HBM markets and released its latest research report on the South Korean semiconductor memory industry. Citing expert views, the report judges that the strong memory chip market will persist throughout 2027 and extend into the first half of 2028. Based on favorable price expectations for HBM and conventional DRAM, Goldman Sachs reiterated its Buy ratings on Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix (SKHY), with target prices of KRW 500,000 and KRW 350,000, respectively.
TrendForce forecasts that DRAM supply will remain tight in 2027. Consumer demand is relatively weak, but robust server demand combined with limited incremental capacity will support a continued upward trend in DRAM average selling prices. Current long-term agreement coverage stands at 60% to 70%, which will moderate the full-year price increase, while incremental demand beyond the agreed volumes can still be negotiated, and the price uptrend is expected to continue into the first half of 2028.
The blended average selling price of HBM is expected to rise 122% year over year to US$3.7/Gb in 2027, driving industry revenue growth of more than 230% to exceed US$200 billion. Pricing varies significantly across different customers and suppliers, with high-end HBM4 priced above US$5/Gb and low-end products close to US$3/Gb. Affected by die costs, the per-bit price of 8-high HBM4 is 5% to 10% higher than that of 12-high products, and HBM4E pricing is expected to be significantly higher than HBM4, a judgment consistent with Goldman Sachs’ previous expectations.
Even as manufacturers increase capital expenditure, cleanroom space and equipment delivery cycles remain constraints, making substantial DRAM capacity expansion difficult to achieve before 2028. In 2027, the two South Korean manufacturers will add a combined approximately 80,000 to 100,000 wafers per month of new capacity, with Samsung Electronics prioritizing new capacity for HBM and relying on technology iteration for conventional DRAM bit growth. Equipment supply conditions are expected to improve in the second half of 2027, new fabs will only begin contributing effective supply from 2028, and manufacturers will also dynamically adjust expansion plans based on demand.
Google’s (GOOGL) TPU business has become a new growth pole for HBM demand, driving cross-generational HBM demand development, with HBM4 set to account for nearly 60% of industry revenue next year. Regarding Chinese manufacturers, TrendForce believes that Fujian Jinhua (JHICC) and ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) lag markedly behind leading companies in technology and yield, with limited medium-term competitive risk, and domestic manufacturers’ HBM market share will be less than 2% in 2027, with Fujian Jinhua focusing on HBM2E and ChangXin Memory Technologies concentrating on HBM3/3E.
