Mizuho’s latest research shows that the rapid adoption of AI agents is becoming a core driver of expanding demand for server CPUs and storage. From AI agent-specific CPUs to head node CPUs and then to the traditional CPU market, the overall potential market size for server CPUs is expected to reach approximately $209 billion by 2030. Chipmakers such as Nvidia (NVDA), AMD (AMD), and Intel (INTC), as well as server manufacturers such as Dell (DELL) and Super Micro Computer (SMCI), are all seen as beneficiaries, while storage chipmakers such as Micron Technology are also ushering in demand growth opportunities. Based on this, Mizuho raised target prices on multiple stocks and reiterated its bullish views on Nvidia and Micron Technology.
Mizuho analysts led by Vijay Rakesh estimate that by 2030, the market size for AI agent-specific CPUs will reach approximately $80 billion, with a compound annual growth rate of 123% over the next four years; the market size for head node CPUs used to coordinate computing tasks is expected to reach $68 billion, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 61%; and the traditional CPU market is expected to reach $60 billion, with a compound annual growth rate of only about 2%. Overall, Mizuho expects the global potential market size for server CPUs to increase to approximately $209 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 32% over the next four years, a forecast that is even lower than AMD’s long-term market size target of more than $220 billion.
AI agents will become the most important growth driver. Mizuho expects the proportion of AI agent-related CPU demand in total server CPU demand to rise rapidly from about 4% currently to about 30% by 2030. At the same time, in the respective markets for CPUs, DRAM, and NAND, AI agents may ultimately contribute 22% to 30% of shipment demand. Mizuho noted that the market’s warm reception of Meta’s recently launched personal AI agent Muse, as well as OpenAI’s release of Dots, both indicate that AI agents are becoming more deeply integrated into daily workflows. As AI agents need to continuously execute tasks, call models, and coordinate different computing resources, their adoption is expected to significantly increase server-side CPU and storage demand.
In the near term, Mizuho believes that four leading CPUs are expected to become important beneficiaries of AI agent workloads, including Arm’s AGI CPU, AMD’s Venice, Nvidia’s Vera, and Intel’s Diamond Rapids. Regarding the competitive landscape in server CPUs, Mizuho expects steady revenue growth for AMD and Intel. AMD’s server CPU revenue is expected to increase from approximately $12 billion in 2025 to approximately $44 billion in 2028, while Intel is expected to grow from approximately $17 billion to $41 billion. By comparison, Nvidia may show a steeper growth curve. Mizuho expects its server CPU revenue to surge from approximately $7 billion in 2025 to approximately $60 billion in 2028, and it is expected to surpass competitors in 2027. As Vera ramps up, Nvidia is expected to expand market share through Vera standalone racks and CPU products paired with GPU compute nodes. Mizuho maintained its “Outperform” rating and $325 target price on Nvidia.
Server manufacturers are also expected to share in the infrastructure investment dividends brought by AI agents. Mizuho expects Dell’s pure CPU server revenue to increase from approximately $19 billion in 2025 to approximately $40 billion in 2028; Super Micro Computer’s related revenue may grow from $7 billion to $17 billion, mainly driven by AI agent orchestration demand and traditional enterprise server deployments. Based on the above demand outlook, Mizuho raised its target price on AMD from $580 to $705, raised its target price on Dell from $600 to $650, raised its target price on Intel from $92 to $114, raised its target price on SanDisk from $1,875 to $2,050, and raised its target price on Super Micro Computer from $35 to $43. In addition to giving Super Micro Computer a “Neutral” rating, Mizuho maintained an “Outperform” rating on the other aforementioned companies. Storage chips are also regarded by Mizuho as an important beneficiary direction of expanding AI agent demand. As AI agents drive growth in DRAM and NAND demand, the bank reiterated its “Outperform” rating and $1,400 target price on Micron Technology.
