SpaceX (SPCX) raised $85.7 billion in its June 12 initial public offering, including the underwriters’ overallotment, and priced the listing at a $1.77 trillion valuation — figures that set Wall Street records. Four months on, the company faces a staggered wave of insider share unlocks even as two major banks move to raise price targets after a blowout third quarter, leaving the bull and bear cases to play out in real time.
Under the standard IPO practice, insiders — senior executives, board members and early investors — are barred from selling for 180 calendar days after listing, shielding retail demand from early insider exits. SpaceX’s prospectus instead lays out a staggered, accelerated lockup schedule for insiders eligible for early release, allowing sales at a series of earnings-based and time-based milestones. Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk, the company’s largest shareholder, is not among those eligible.
When SpaceX went public it sold roughly 555.6 million shares, less than 5% of shares outstanding; private companies typically float 10% to 25% of outstanding shares at IPO. The resulting thin float let the stock enter the Nasdaq-100, Russell 1000 and Russell 3000 indices quickly, with passive funds absorbing a large portion of the tradable supply and supporting the shares in the first weeks after listing.
Sales permission arrives through two tracks. On the earnings track, up to 911.5 million shares become eligible for sale two business days after each quarterly report. After third-quarter results on Oct. 20, that tranche became eligible on Oct. 22. On the time track, roughly 319 million shares open up at calendar days 70, 90, 105, 120, 135 and 180. Day 135 fell on the Oct. 24 weekend, pushing another 319 million shares into sellable status on Oct. 26.
Each release expands the float rapidly. Most of these early investors have had no way to cash out for a decade or longer, though whether the unlocked shares actually translate into selling remains to be seen.
Reported after the close on Oct. 20, third-quarter results ran well ahead of expectations: total revenue of roughly $14.6 billion beat the average Wall Street estimate by nearly $1.7 billion, while net income of $4.4 billion also came in far above analyst forecasts. Management guided first-quarter 2027 revenue to $33 billion to $37 billion, far ahead of prior estimates near $22 billion, and the stock rose nearly 8% the following session.
On the earnings call, Musk said the company’s data-center footprint would add 10 gigawatts of AI compute capacity by the end of 2027, with a small chance of reaching 20GW, and projected an annual recurring revenue run rate of $500 billion to $1 trillion exiting 2027.
At Citi, analyst John Godyn placed SpaceX on an upside 90-day catalyst watch, reiterated a buy rating and lifted the price target to $240, implying roughly 63% upside from current levels. In his note, Godyn wrote that repeated beats and raised guidance had built credibility, expected the trend to continue in the fourth quarter, and flagged the planned 15th launch of the fully reusable super-heavy-lift Starship rocket as a potential monumental catalyst for the space industry.
JPMorgan Chase analyst Doug Anmuth maintained an outperform rating and more than doubled the price target, from $240 to $500. Taking Musk’s projections at face value, Anmuth modeled 10GW of compute and $254 billion of total revenue next year, reaching a $400 billion revenue run rate exiting 2027, while cautioning that the compute build-out, raising all required capital and continued AI demand are the prerequisites for the thesis.
Compute capacity totaled 1.7GW at the end of the third quarter, up from 1.4GW at the end of the second and 0.6GW a year earlier. The 10GW increase targets 2027, and Musk expects 2.5GW to 3GW by year-end, implying roughly 11.3GW of expansion in about 15 months. Revenue currently relies mainly on renting compute capacity to hyperscalers and other AI companies, making the near-term share price highly dependent on that business.
Since listing, SpaceX has continued raising significant debt to fund heavy spending on AI compute expansion and a longer-term plan for data centers in space. Against the steadily unlocking insider supply stand the banks’ raised targets; the strong quarter sits alongside execution still to be proven, and both sides of the debate are already being priced into the shares.
