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Sprott Asset Management’s CEO, John Ciampaglia, recently expressed optimism towards uranium and copper, noting their shared characteristics of scarcity and significant capital requirements. The uranium futures prices have nearly doubled over the past year, while copper prices have surged to multi-month highs under various favorable conditions.
Ciampaglia believes uranium is a unique commodity, where even at $100 per pound, there remains a scarcity in the supply. Market supply has yet to respond meaningfully in the next few years, leading to an expected prolonged increase in uranium prices.
According to Ciampaglia, uranium’s value lies in aiding in three main goals: decarbonization, energy security, and serving as a complement to renewable energy sources. Nuclear power plants boast a high capacity factor of 92.5%, making them suitable for base-load power compared to solar energy with a capacity factor of only 25%.
As countries increasingly recognize the importance of diversifying energy sources, the uranium market is dominated by a few nations, most of which are not particularly friendly to the Western world. The concentration of supply poses risks, prompting Western nations to actively promote supply chain reshoring, including uranium mining operations.
Against the backdrop of rising uranium prices, multiple uranium producers are restarting mines, and this trend is gradually extending into uranium exploration activities. At least five American producers are reviving mines in states such as Wyoming, Texas, Arizona, and Utah. To meet the demand, U.S. uranium producers predict the need for 8-10 new large mines to be operational over the next decade.
Meanwhile, Sprott, which recently launched a copper ETF, also favors copper as a metal. Ciampaglia stated that the long-term and substantial demand related to energy transition can provide enduring support for copper prices. Investor interest is also steadily increasing. Similar to uranium, copper faces supply shortages and significant capital expenditures. However, the only way for these conditions to materialize is through a rise in copper prices.
Following a recent surge in gold, copper prices have also spiked. LME London copper has shown a rapid upward trend, reaching a peak of $9,098 per ton on March 15. The short-term catalyst for this surge includes unexpected reduction measures by Chinese smelters and downstream policy stimuli. Long-term factors include a decrease in copper output exceeding market expectations and the fundamental demand for copper as an essential metal in global economic development, particularly in the green energy transition process.
Goldman Sachs believes that the structurally insufficient supply will lead to a significant rise in copper prices to achieve demand self-regulation. The report forecasts an extremely tight supply-demand situation expected to continue until 2025. Goldman Sachs predicts that copper prices may reach $10,000 per ton by the end of this year, possibly surpassing $12,000 per ton by 2025.
