In 2024, global factors such as inflation rates, monetary policy, and geopolitical situations make it difficult for investment. June’s CPI surprised many, with core CPI hitting a three-year low, causing housing inflation to cool rapidly and increasing market bets that the Federal Reserve might soon cut rates. Recently, escalating tensions in the Middle East have drawn significant market attention.
Gold serves as the ‘final defense’ against international economic and political risks, with expectations of geopolitical instability quickly reflected in its price.On August 13, speculation that Iran might soon take action against Israel led to a sharp increase in both gold and international crude oil prices, with oil prices rising over 3% and gold briefly surpassing the $2,470 mark. Ongoing geopolitical tensions have made factors that support gold prices in the medium to long term dominant.
Silver, as a similar safe-haven asset, tends to follow gold’s price movements and serves as an excellent value-preserving tool during inflationary periods. In summary, the combination of rate cuts and geopolitical tensions forms the foundation for a bullish outlook on precious metals in the market.
Electric vehicles, a key symbol of the energy transition, are expected to see adoption shift from being policy-driven to consumer-driven, according to BloombergNEF. With ongoing advancements in electrification technology, it is projected that by 2027, sales of passenger electric vehicles will exceed 30 million units, growing to 73 million units annually by 2040.
Oil and natural gas, two of the world’s most important energy sources, are experiencing different fluctuations but both hold significant potential. Oil prices are surging due to rising concerns over escalating conflicts in the Middle East, along with expectations of US rate cuts, boosting the global economic outlook for fuel demand. Analysts predict WTI could reach $80 per barrel.As the most environmentally friendly fossil fuel, natural gas prices in June were 80% higher in the U.S. and 25% higher in Europe compared to average prices in March. This increase is driven by rising power generation demand and expectations of higher U.S. LNG (liquefied natural gas) exports in the coming months. Both markets also benefit from strong LNG demand in Asia, which is expected to continue climbing through 2025.
Investors should notice that As inflation has declined in recent months, U.S. real estate stocks have made notable gains. On July 11th, while the Nasdaq dropped 2%, the real estate sector surged by 2.7%, marking its largest increase in 2024. Growing expectations of interest rate cuts drove this rebound.
The real estate market, a key rate-sensitive industry, has already seen mortgage rates drop due to lower Federal Reserve rate expectations. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate has fallen to 6.50%, benefiting borrowers and boosting homebuyer activity. Analysts suggest the outlook for U.S. real estate stocks is improving. With inflation declining and potential rate cuts on the horizon, especially with strong fundamentals, real estate investment trusts (REITs) could rebound by over 20% from recent lows.
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For more information please see our NAI500 event page.
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