Several Investment Banks Raised Their Gold Price Expectations, Gold Prices Remain Stable at Historical Highs

多家投行上调金价预期,金价稳定在历史高位
Published on: Sep 26, 2024
Author: Amy Liu

On Wednesday, September 25 (local time), gold prices remained stable near historical highs, as new consumer data from the United States pointed further to economic weakness, providing justification for potential rate cuts in the coming months. According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s FedWatch tool, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 50 basis points at its next policy meeting in November has risen from about 40% after the last meeting to 57%.

As of 12:30 PM Eastern Time, spot gold prices were flat at $2,655.79 per ounce, having reached a new high of $2,669.97 earlier in the day. U.S. gold futures rose about 0.1% to $2,679.10 per ounce.

Commodity analysts at BMO Capital Markets in Montreal have released a new gold outlook, predicting that the average gold price in the fourth quarter will be around $2,700 per ounce, a 15% increase from their previous forecast of $2,350. Looking ahead to the next 12 months, they expect the average gold price in 2025 to be $2,663 per ounce, which is a 21% increase from their earlier forecast of $2,200. The bank has also raised its long-term gold price forecast to $1,900 per ounce, up 15% from its previous estimate of $1,650.

UBS has also revised its predictions, forecasting that the average gold price will remain unchanged until mid-2025.

So far this year, gold prices have surged nearly 30%, gaining further momentum after the Federal Reserve cut rates by 50 basis points last week. Strong central bank purchases and heightened geopolitical tensions have driven safe-haven demand, supporting gold prices. Central banks around the world continue to buy gold, with the World Gold Council (WGC) reporting net purchases of 37 tons in July, a month-on-month increase of 206%, marking the highest monthly growth since January this year. Although prices may influence global central bank demand for gold, the long-term trend of net purchases remains intact.

Meanwhile, silver prices have also benefited from the rise in gold, increasing by about 34% this year. UBS precious metals strategist Joni Teves attributes the rise in silver to investors seeking buying opportunities. The bank has also raised its gold price target to $2,700 per ounce by mid-2025.

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