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If Trump returns to the White House, he will shift the focus of the nation’s energy policy from addressing climate change to maximizing oil and gas production. However, it is unlikely that a Republican victory in the presidential election on Tuesday will significantly slow the thriving renewable energy sector in the U.S.
Analysts indicate that due to support from Republican-led states, a law enacted during Biden’s administration that provides generous subsidies for new solar, wind, and other clean energy projects for ten years is nearly impossible to repeal. Additionally, other means available to the next president would have negligible impact.
Ed Hirs, an energy researcher at the University of Houston, stated, “I don’t think President Trump can slow down the transition. It is progressing smoothly.”
According to data from the Department of Energy, renewable energy sources like solar and wind are the fastest-growing segments of the grid thanks to federal tax credits, state renewable energy mandates, and technological advancements that have reduced costs.
In 2022, President Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act, which guarantees billions in subsidies for solar and wind energy over the next decade. This is part of a broader effort to decarbonize the electricity sector by 2035 in response to climate change.
Before the elections, Trump criticized the Inflation Reduction Act for its high costs and promised to revoke any unused funds. If this threat were realized, it could dampen the growth of clean energy in the U.S. However, doing so would require legislators to vote to repeal it, including lawmakers from states that benefit from investments related to the Inflation Reduction Act, such as solar panel factories, wind farms, and other projects.
Media reports have indicated that many of Trump’s allies also benefited from investments in clean energy technologies stemming from the Inflation Reduction Act.
Trump has stated that he plans to end the offshore wind industry on his first day in office, arguing that the industry is too costly and poses a threat to whales and seabirds. This represents a significant reversal of policy from his first term, during which his administration supported offshore wind development. This decision could have a substantial impact on the offshore wind industry.
Bernstein Research has indicated that Trump might impose a ban on new offshore wind leasing sales. Meanwhile, experts suggest that fossil fuel production in the U.S. could remain roughly the same under Trump’s leadership. Under Biden’s supervision, the U.S. has become the world’s largest producer of oil and natural gas.
