Gold Typically Sees Its Highest Returns in December and January over the Past 10 Years

Gold Prices Face Uncertainty as U.S. Inflation Rate Approaches 2%
Published on: Dec 9, 2024
Author: Caroline Kong

According to Bloomberg, gold has seen the highest return in December and January over the past decade, with average gains of 2.4 per cent and 3.5 per cent respectively.

After gold prices fell 4% in November this year, analysts believe that gold prices are still supported by a series of positive factors this month, including the resumption of China’s central bank buying, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, as well as the Federal Reserve’s expected rate cut in December.

As of noon EST on Monday (9 December local time), spot gold rose 1.3% to $2,667.61 an ounce, the highest since 24 November, while Nymex gold futures rose 1.2 per cent to $2,690.60 an ounce.

On 7 December, the People’s Bank of China (China’s central bank) released data on official reserve assets showing that China’s official gold reserves stood at 72.96 million ounces at the end of November, an increase of 160,000 ounces compared with the end of October, meaning it has increased its gold holdings for the first time in half a year. Previously, the People’s Bank of China has been suspended for six consecutive months to increase gold reserves.

Analysts pointed out that the Federal Reserve is in the interest rate reduction cycle, Trump’s back to the White House will interfere the pace of interest rate cuts, but will not change the trend, because the U.S. macro-economy is a big cycle of problems, definitely not short-term fluctuations. Since 1976, gold as one of the better hedge against risk assets, has been one of the perfect assets to diversify risk.

According to World Gold Council (WGC), gold purchases by central banks surged to 60 tonnes in October, with India alone adding 27 tonnes of gold to its reserves in October, bringing total gold purchases to 77 tonnes between January and October this year.

JPMorgan strategists said last week that gold still looks like a good hedge against the high level of uncertainty in the macro picture in the early stages of the Trump administration in 2025. Gold’s long-term rally is reminiscent of the late 1970s, another period of persistent inflation problems. So far this year, the price of gold has risen 29 per cent. According to JP Morgan, gold remains the top commodity to buy in 2025.

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