Weekly Market Recap (December 13) – Outlook for the 2025 Gold Market

Weekly Market Recap (December 13) - Outlook for the 2025 Gold Market
Published on: Dec 12, 2024

In 2024, the gold market demonstrated exceptional strength, influenced by a combination of factors. Gold prices surged significantly, with an increase of nearly 30% year-to-date, outperforming most major asset classes. Key drivers for this rise included continued gold purchases by central banks, robust investment demand in Asia, and heightened geopolitical uncertainty.

However, looking ahead to 2025, the landscape for the gold market presents both continuity and new changes. One major development is the inauguration of the new U.S. president, Donald Trump, whose policies could cause significant political upheavals, potentially reshaping the precious metals market.

In March 2024, Louis-Pierre Gignac, President and CEO of G Mining Venture Corp. (TSX: GMIN) (OTCQX: GMINF), discussed the company’s milestones and his views on gold prices in an interview with METALS 100. G Mining Ventures is a mining company focused on the acquisition, exploration, and development of precious metal projects, aiming to leverage strong access to capital and proven development expertise to become a mid-tier precious metals producer. Currently, the company is focused on developing its flagship Tocantinzinho gold project, located in the mining-friendly Pará State in Brazil.

Key Trends in the Gold Market for 2025

  1. Trump’s Impact on Gold Prices
    Donald Trump’s policy proposals—such as tax cuts, increased tariffs on foreign goods, and large-scale immigration reforms—could drive higher inflation. However, with the past three years of high-interest rates causing outflows from gold-related assets, the market remains cautious. The Federal Reserve is expected to pause rate cuts in 2025 due to uncertainties stemming from Trump’s policies.
  2. Geopolitical Pressures and Gold Demand
    In 2024, conflicts in the Middle East and Eastern Europe spurred demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. While Trump has vowed to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict, whether he can achieve this remains highly uncertain. Additionally, the possibility of new conflicts emerging in other parts of the world cannot be ruled out, which might further boost gold demand.
  3. Central Bank Gold Buying
    Strong demand from central banks in recent years has provided consistent support for gold prices, particularly from Asia, the Middle East, and parts of Eastern Europe. Data from the World Gold Council (WGC) shows that while central bank purchases slowed mid-2024, there was a strong rebound towards the year’s end. For instance, net gold purchases in October alone reached 60 tons, the highest monthly total of the year.

Investment Prospects for Gold Mining

Despite the substantial rise in gold prices, merger and acquisition activity within the gold mining sector remains subdued. This is likely due to gold prices still being insufficient to fully offset rising production costs and high-interest rates. However, industry experts note that market sentiment has significantly improved in 2024, creating favorable conditions for increased mining sector M&A activity and renewed investor interest in 2025. Gold stocks are also expected to rally in response.

Gold Market Outlook for 2025

The World Gold Council’s latest report predicts that while the growth of the gold market may slow in 2025, there is still room for upward movement, albeit within a more nuanced framework. One major risk highlighted by the WGC is the uncertainty surrounding Donald Trump’s economic policies. For example, tariffs potentially driving inflation could impact the Federal Reserve’s current stance on monetary policy.

Bank of America maintains a positive outlook on the gold market for 2025, asserting that although the current price consolidation may persist into the first half of the year, prices are expected to break through the $3,000 per ounce mark in the second half, with an average price target of $2,750. A key factor supporting gold prices is the U.S. government’s rising debt levels. Additionally, the global move toward “de-dollarization” poses risks that could further strengthen demand for gold.

Goldman Sachs has also listed going long on gold as one of its top trades in its 2025 commodities outlook. The firm predicts that gold prices will rise to $3,000 per ounce by the end of the year, driven by strong central bank demand, anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts, and increased demand for safe-haven assets. Goldman Sachs continues to view gold as the premier hedge against inflation and geopolitical risks.

Federal Reserve Gold Interest Rate Precious Metals