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Chile’s national copper commission, Cochilco, stated on Thursday that it has maintained its forecast for copper prices in 2025 at $4.25 per pound and has adopted the same price for its new projection for 2026.
In May last year, Cochilco raised its forecast for copper prices in 2025 from $3.85 per pound to $4.25 per pound, and it has held onto this projection ever since. The agency expects copper prices to remain above $4.00 per pound over the next decade.
Cochilco’s interim vice president, Claudia Rodriguez, said in a statement, “These projections are supported by the increased copper demand driven by the energy transition and the development of electrical grids, while supply remains limited. Geopolitical tensions have also played a role. Uncertainty about China’s economic recovery, U.S. tariffs, and tightened monetary policies may restrain copper demand, thereby affecting copper prices.”
Cochilco forecasts a global copper supply deficit of 118,000 metric tons this year, but the market is expected to flip to a surplus of 210,000 metric tons next year. It also anticipates Chile’s copper production to grow by 4.6% to 5.76 million metric tons this year and to increase by another 3.6% to 5.97 million metric tons by 2026.
Analysts from ANZ’s Economic and Market Research Department noted in a comment that the world’s largest copper producer, Chile, has warned of tightening supply.
BHP’s reports showed that the company’s second-half copper production last year grew by 10% year-over-year, with output from its Escondida mine in northern Chile increasing by 22%, a record high in a decade. BHP also forecast that due to the strong demand for copper in AI data centers, global copper demand will grow by 70% by 2050 compared to its 2021 levels.
Goldman Sachs, in its December 2024 analysis, stated that the copper market is evolving into a supply shortage due to strong Chinese demand and constrained supply. This persistent supply shortage is expected to strongly support copper price increases.
Morgan Stanley also noted in a report last March that copper demand is poised for substantial growth with the rapid development of AI technologies, particularly with AI data centers emerging as a new driver of copper demand.
