On Wednesday, the London Metal Exchange (LME) copper price closed at $9,770 per ton, while New York copper futures were already trading above $10,000 per ton. On Thursday morning, the price of copper for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by 0.6% to $4.87 per pound ($10,071 per ton).
In recent weeks, copper prices have surged after U.S. President Donald Trump ordered an investigation into copper imports, which triggered a rise in U.S. copper prices. Despite growing concerns about the U.S. economy, industrial metals have performed relatively well. Copper prices have also been supported by the scarcity of raw materials.
Citigroup predicts that London copper prices will reach $10,000 per ton within the next three months, noting that the global market will remain tight until the schedule for U.S. import tariffs becomes clearer.
Citigroup analysts, including Max Layton, stated, “We believe that tight spot markets outside the U.S. may persist until May/June, temporarily offsetting the price resistance caused by broader tariff announcements in the U.S.”
Trump’s revised steel and aluminum tariffs took effect on Wednesday, prompting retaliation from the EU and Canada. Trump has made it clear that he wishes to impose tariffs on copper, but his Commerce Department must first conduct an investigation and make recommendations.
Citigroup’s view marks a shift from its February forecast, when the bank predicted that copper prices would drop to $8,500 per ton in the second quarter. The bank still expects prices to fall as U.S. copper import demand collapses due to tariffs, with the approach of Section 232 copper tariffs.
Additionally, supply constraints remain. Chile, the world’s largest copper producer, saw a 24% month-on-month drop in production in January, hitting a nine-month low, while smelter demand continues to grow. Morgan Stanley expects copper prices to rise further.
