Cobalt prices hit a nine-year low in February after another year of oversupply but staged a strong rebound following a four-month export suspension of the critical metal by the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).
At the beginning of the year, cobalt was priced at $24,495 per ton, but by the end of Q1, it had surged to $34,040.40—a 39% increase since January. The period saw significant volatility: prices dropped to $21,467.70 on January 29 before soaring to $36,262 on March 17, a swing of 69%.
The Q1 price fluctuations came after persistent oversupply had prevented any meaningful price recovery in 2024. The surplus continued to weigh on the market, with no improvement in the first 45 days of 2025. However, the DRC’s announcement on February 22 to curb cobalt exports until the end of June helped prices rebound to 2023 levels. Currently, cobalt is stabilizing at $33,660.80, but uncertainties remain for the second half of the year.
Global cobalt production has surged by 107% over the past five years, rising from 140,000 tons in 2020 to 290,000 tons in 2024—far outpacing demand growth from sectors like electric vehicles (EVs). The DRC, which supplies over 60% of the world’s cobalt, has temporarily eased oversupply pressures with its export restrictions, but long-term supply-demand balance remains uncertain.
Cobalt Demand Breakdown
Despite strong EV sales growth (17.1 million units sold globally in 2024, up 25% year-on-year), cobalt demand faces two major constraints:
Future Challenges
The industry is actively seeking alternatives. New technologies like nickel-based lithium batteries now offer performance close to cobalt-containing batteries, and widespread adoption could further suppress cobalt demand. Analysts expect global EV sales to exceed 20 million units in 2025, but whether cobalt prices sustain their recovery will depend on the interplay between supply controls and substitution technologies.
