This year began with cobalt prices hitting inflation-adjusted historic lows as oversupply and weak demand pushed cobalt sulphate entering China’s EV battery supply chain to an average of $3,556 per ton in January—a stark drop from the 2022 peak of nearly $19,000/ton. The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), source of 80% of global cobalt, triggered a market turnaround by imposing a four-month export ban in February to ease oversupply. Prices surged over 60% in March to average $5,767/ton, retaining most gains through April.
DRC’s copper output—dominated by Chinese companies—drove a near 40% jump in co-product cobalt production in 2024. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s booming nickel exports boosted its cobalt byproduct output. The DRC is now in talks with Indonesia to coordinate cobalt supply management, including potential quotas.
Adamas Intelligence data tracking EV battery metals across 120+ countries reveals the cobalt market rebounded sharply in March, reaching $152.4 million—a 120% monthly surge and the highest since December 2022. While March marked broad EV sector strength, cobalt outperformed peers: nickel deployment value rose 41%, while lithium grew 28% on Asian sales momentum despite lingering price lows.
Despite cobalt’s price volatility, its long-term EV market prospects face headwinds. Lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries are rapidly displacing nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM) and nickel-cobalt-aluminum (NCA) cathodes. Adamas Intelligence highlights diverging metal demand: in 2024, iron and phosphorus deployment in EV batteries surged 54% and 49%, respectively, while nickel, manganese, and cobalt saw modest 11%, 10%, and 7% growth.
In an interview on Metals 100, John Passalacqua, the CEO and Director of First Phosphate Corp. (CSE: PHOS, OTC: FRSPF, FSE: KD0) , highlighted the significant results of the Bégin-Lamarche PEA, including an NPV of CAD 2.1 billion and a strong IRR. First Phosphate is a mineral development company dedicated to extracting and purifying phosphate for the production of cathode active material for the Lithium Iron Phosphate (“LFP”) battery industry.
Nickel-cobalt-manganese now account for 21% of battery metals by weight, down from 24% in 2023 and 36% in 2020—when BYD shifted entirely to LFP and Tesla’s Model 3 revived cobalt-free adoption. CATL, the world’s largest EV battery maker (30% global capacity), announced in April that sodium-ion battery production will begin by late 2025. While constrained by performance, sodium-ion tech may challenge LFP rather than NCM, offering cobalt a temporary reprieve.
(Note: Installed metal tonnage excludes processing losses, meaning mine-level demand exceeds final battery figures.)
