Copper prices swung violently on Thursday, clawing back from their steepest single-day drop in nearly a month as markets digested renewed trade optimism from Washington.
July copper futures on COMEX surged 1.6% to $4.683 per pound ($10,302 per tonne), partially recovering from Wednesday’s 5% collapse. On the London Metal Exchange, three-month contracts rebounded above $9,200/tonne after a 3% rout.
The whiplash reversal followed President Trump’s claim of a “very good chance” to strike a China trade deal “on U.S. terms,” amplified by U.S. Trade Representative hints of imminent initial agreements.
April’s 6% copper price slump – the worst monthly performance since mid-2022 – had reflected escalating global trade war fears. Washington’s ongoing review of potential copper import tariffs added to market jitters.
Supply chain turbulence resurfaced in Peru, the world’s No.3 copper producer, where community protests disrupted operations at Antamina (BHP/Glencore) and Las Bambas (MMG). While Antamina resumed operations swiftly, Las Bambas logistics remain partially paralyzed.
The International Copper Study Group now forecasts a ballooning global surplus, revising its 2025 projection to 289,000 tonnes – double last year’s figure and 49% above prior 2025 expectations. The glut is projected to persist through 2026 at 209,000 tonnes, cementing a three-year oversupply cycle.
