Gold Prices Will Continue to Hit New Highs Amid Recovering U.S. and Global GDP Growth

黄金价格不断创下历史新高,哪些股票可能受益?
Published on: May 8, 2025
Author: Caroline Kong

Over the past year, amid geopolitical risks and fears of recession, the price of gold has risen, hitting multiple record highs and over $3,500 per ounce last month. Typically, investors choose gold as a safe-haven asset when the stock market and economic outlook face uncertainty.

However, according to Grace Peters, Global Head of Investment Strategy at JPMorgan, gold price is poised to surge to $4,000 per ounce over the next year under a base-case scenario of sustained U.S. and global GDP growth.

In a Wednesday interview with Bloomberg Television, Peters noted that U.S. equities have already partially priced in optimism around a potential U.S.-China trade deal, with the S&P 500 hovering just 3-4% below record highs. “Negotiations to reduce prohibitively high tariffs are undoubtedly positive,” she said. “While final rates may remain elevated, we expect the U.S. effective tariff rate to settle in the mid-teens, creating a backdrop where corporate earnings thrive, supporting risk assets and sustained economic expansion.”

Peters emphasized that  larger debate centers on whether recent U.S. policy shifts are cyclical or structural. She explained that in this context, geographic diversification is paramount. Both U.S. and European equities stand to benefit as investors seek balanced exposure amid policy uncertainty.

Fed Policy to Bolster Equities

JPMorgan is currently formalizing its 12-month price targets, with Peters expressing confidence in U.S. equities fueled by Federal Reserve support. “The S&P 500 could revisit February’s highs—or even set new records—with the Fed likely cutting rates twice this year and twice in 2025, bringing the terminal rate to approximately 3.5%,” she projected. While weaker growth could prompt deeper cuts, Peters cautioned that the Fed remains “constrained by sticky inflation dynamics, particularly consumer expectations.”

This outlook—moderate growth, resilient earnings, and measured Fed easing—reinforces JPMorgan’s call for strategic diversification. “Staying pro-risk but intentionally diversified across regions is key,” Peters stressed.

Gold’s Structural Rally: From $3,500 to $4,000‌

When addressing gold’s role, Peters reiterated JPMorgan’s bullish stance. “Gold serves multiple purposes: diversifying concentrated U.S. exposure, hedging currency risks, and addressing broader geopolitical uncertainties,” she said.

The metal’s outperformance this year, surpassing the firm’s initial $3,500 target has prompted an upward revision $4,000 over the next 12 months.

Drivers include robust institutional demand, particularly from emerging market central banks seeking to align gold reserves with developed market counterparts, alongside steady retail ETF inflows. Peters also highlighted resilient fundamental demand: With GDP growth expectations intact, jewelry and industrial tech sectors should sustain—or even expand—their gold consumption.‌

Spot gold retreated 1.67% on Thursday, briefly dipping below $3,300 per ounce in afternoon trading amid technical corrections. The pullback, however, aligns with JPMorgan’s view of gold’s evolving role as a strategic hedge in diversified portfolios rather than a short-term tactical trade.

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