Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) released its latest report on Wednesday, stating that the key mineral resources needed for the global clean energy transition are becoming increasingly concentrated in a few countries, notably China. This highly concentrated supply chain structure could pose a risk of supply disruptions to the global economy, subsequently impacting industrial systems and raising consumer costs.
The report focuses on minerals critical to the energy transition, including copper, lithium, cobalt, graphite, and rare earth elements. Data shows that the top three producing countries for these minerals have seen their average market share increase from 82% in 2020 to 86% in 2024. Out of 20 strategic minerals, China dominates in 19, with an average refining share of about 75%. Additionally, Indonesia’s nickel production has grown rapidly, underlining nickel’s increasing importance as a key material for electric vehicle batteries and steel manufacturing.
The IEA warned that current export restrictions and escalating trade disputes are heightening concerns.
In the March 2025 interview on METALS 100, Mr. Gan-Ochir Z, Managing Director of Asian Battery Metals PLC (ASX: AZ9), shared insights on the latest project highlights at Mongolia, how the company will position current valution, and the company’s vision for the EV market sector in 2025. Asian Battery Metals PLC is a mineral exploration and development company focused on advancing the 100% owned Yambat (Oval Cu-Ni-PGE, Copper Ridge Cu-Au), Khukh Tag Graphite and Tsagaan Ders Lithium projects in Mongolia.
Executive Director Fatih Birol emphasized that key mineral supply chains are extremely vulnerable to shocks like extreme weather, technical failures, or trade disruptions. These potential shocks could lead to higher consumer costs and reduced industrial competitiveness. He referenced the European energy crisis in the aftermath of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the automotive industry shutdown during the global chip shortage amid the pandemic, stressing that diversification is the “golden rule” of energy security—a principle closely linked to economic security.
The report particularly notes that China is not only a major supplier of critical minerals, but it also dominates the refining and processing stages for resources such as lithium, cobalt, and graphite. With the escalation of U.S.-China trade conflicts, China has imposed export restrictions on some key minerals.
On the U.S. side, the Trump administration made reducing foreign dependency a core element of its national security and economic resilience agenda. Steps in this direction included promoting a mineral resource cooperation agreement with Ukraine, accelerating deep-sea mining projects in international waters, and attempting to streamline the domestic approval process for copper mine production through executive orders.
Although the current global supply of critical minerals is adequate and prices have generally fallen, the IEA predicts that by 2030 there could be a supply-demand gap of up to 30% for copper. As copper is a key material in power grids and electrical equipment, delayed production plans might become a bottleneck for future clean energy development.
