Gold Could Rally to $4,000 as U.S. Credibility Crumbles, Analysts Warn

Gold Surges Past $2,500, A Historic Breakthrough
Published on: Jun 14, 2025
Author: Caroline Kong

Gold prices may surge to $4,000 per ounce by early 2026 as political interference in U.S. monetary policy and deteriorating economic credibility fuel demand for safe-haven assets, according to a new forecast from WisdomTree.

Fed Independence Under Threat

Escalating tensions between former President Donald Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell have raised concerns about central bank independence. Trump recently blamed Powell repeatedly for maintaining a neutral policy stance, sparking fears that future leadership appointments could politicize rate decisions.

“Gold thrives when faith in fiat currencies falters,” said Nitesh Shah, WisdomTree’s Head of Commodities & Macroeconomic Research. “Any perceived erosion of Fed autonomy could trigger a structural revaluation.” WisdomTree’s base case projects gold at $3,610 by Q1 2026, with a bullish scenario targeting $4,000.

Three Crisis Looming

Shah identifies converging threats to dollar dominance:

Trade Policy Fallout: Even if U.S.-China tensions ease, lasting damage to America’s trade credibility persists

Debt Monetization Risks: Bond market instability may erupt as Washington seeks to reduce borrowing costs

De-Dollarization Wave: Central banks’ record gold purchases signal declining confidence in dollar reserves

Fresh Catalysts Emerging

Though prices remain below last month’s $3,500 peak, fresh catalysts are emerging:
• Fed rate cut expectations building
• Escalating Middle East tensions
• Civil unrest in U.S. cities

“Downside appears limited to $2,700 in our worst-case model,” Shah noted. “With central banks accumulating bullion and ETFs rebuilding positions, we’re seeing textbook buy-the-dip behavior.”

As political and economic uncertainties compound, analysts suggest gold’s traditional role as a crisis hedge may be transitioning into a strategic necessity for portfolios. The $4,000 threshold – once unimaginable – now appears on institutional radar screens.

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