Senate’s “Big, Beautiful Bill” Redefines Winners and Losers in Clean Energy Sector
On Wednesday, the U.S. Senate approved President Trump’s massive tax-and-spending package—the “Big, Beautiful Bill.” Key changes include:
- Operational Deadline Raised: Renewable projects must be in service by 2027 (not merely under construction).
- New China Surcharges: Projects using China-sourced materials incur extra levies.
- Selective Exemptions: Clean-hydrogen producers and U.S.-based manufacturers can qualify for relief.
Rhodium Group warns combined tax-credit losses and China penalties could boost project costs by up to 20%, likely driving electricity prices higher. The American Clean Power Association forecasts an 8–10% increase in consumer power bills if the bill becomes law.
Market Reaction: Divergence Across Energy Sectors
- Under pressure: Utility-scale solar
- Outperforming: Distributed PV, hydrogen, U.S. battery storage
- Supporting lift: Coal, uranium and other legacy baseload sources
Losers
- NextEra Energy (NYSE: NEE): –1.2% (week-to-date: –4%+)
- AES Corp. (NYSE: AES): flat (prior 2-day drop: –6%+)
- Shoals Technologies (NASDAQ: SHLS): –3.6% (week-to-date: –17%+)
- Nextracker (NASDAQ: NXT): –2.4%
- Enphase Energy (NASDAQ: ENPH): –4.2% (week-to-date: –15%+)
- Array Technologies (NASDAQ: ARRY): –1.8% (after Monday’s –10.1% plunge)
Drivers: Concerns over the new in-service cutoff and penalties on China-linked supply chains.
Winners
- Distributed Solar
- Phase-out Schedule: Senate opts for a gradual credit phase-out through 2027, with limited extensions for ≥1 GW federal-land projects approved by the BLM.
- Sunrun (NASDAQ: RUN): +2.7% (week-to-date: +17%!)
- First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR): +1.5%; Jefferies upgrades on U.S. content incentives & China tariffs
- Battery Storage
- Extended Credits: Production & investment tax credits now available through 2036.
- Fluence Energy (NASDAQ: FLNC): +3.1%
- Eos Energy Enterprises (NASDAQ: EOSE): +2.5%
- Hydrogen
- 45V Credit Extended: Clean-hydrogen production credit now valid until 2027.
- Plug Power (NASDAQ: PLUG): +8.2% (three-day gain: +40%+)
- Bloom Energy (NYSE: BE): +3.4%
- Ballard Power Systems (NASDAQ: BLDP): +2.2%
- Traditional Energy
- Coking Coal Producers: Alpha Metallurgical (NYSE: AMR) +1.9%; Warrior Met Coal (NYSE: HCC) +2.4%; Peabody Energy (NYSE: BTU) +1.5%
- Nuclear & Hydropower: Cameco (NYSE: CCJ) +0.7%; Constellation Energy (NASDAQ: CEG) +1.1%
Bottom Line
The Senate’s version of the “Big, Beautiful Bill” tilts heavily toward distributed solar, U.S. battery storage and clean hydrogen, while utility-scale solar and China-linked projects face new headwinds. With House reconciliation next, investors should watch for final details that will cement the winners—and losers—for years to come.
China News
Clean Energy
Coal
