USD Loses Its Allure, Gold Stands Out as the Clear Beneficiary

USD Loses Its Allure, Gold Stands Out as the Clear Beneficiary
Published on: Jul 3, 2025

Over the past six months, the U.S. dollar has suffered a pronounced decline. The DXY index has fallen by more than 10% year-to-date—its steepest first-half slide since 1973—underscoring a broad loss of confidence in the greenback.

In a recent report, UBS went as far as to declare that the dollar has “lost its appeal,” attributing its weakening to a slowing U.S. economy and the rapidly deteriorating fiscal health of Washington, D.C.

Yet amid this dollar malaise, one asset has emerged as the unequivocal winner: gold. Frank Holmes, Chief Investment Officer at U.S. Global Investors, has dubbed bullion the “preferred reserve asset,” arguing that gold is among the most certain beneficiaries of the dollar’s slide. His remarks underscore a growing consensus that precious metals, rather than traditional debt-based investments, offer the safest haven in today’s volatile financial landscape.

Major financial institutions have backed up this bullish thesis with dramatically higher price forecasts.

HSBC now sees gold averaging $3,215 per ounce in 2025 and $3,125 in 2026—up sharply from its previous estimates of $3,015 and $2,915, respectively. Goldman Sachs has taken an even more aggressive stance, projecting gold at $3,700 by year-end 2025, $4,000 by mid-2026, and potentially surging to $4,500 in an extreme-risk scenario.

The shift into gold is already playing out on central banks’ balance sheets. Last year marked the third-largest annual increase in official gold reserves on record, as policymakers sold dollars to buy bullion—while the euro’s share remained largely unchanged. Meanwhile, the dollar’s portion of global reserves slid to just 57.8% in 2024, its lowest level since 1994 and down from roughly 72% in 2002. A recent World Gold Council survey found that 73% of central banks expect their dollar holdings to shrink further over the next five years.

Corporate actors are following suit. Bloomberg reports that many exporters now refuse dollar-only invoices, instead billing U.S. importers in euros, pesos or renminbi to sidestep exchange-rate swings.

Even a modest wave of de-dollarization poses an existential threat to America’s budgetary model: foreign demand for dollars underpins the government’s ability to borrow freely, finance deficits and absorb Federal Reserve-created liquidity. If that demand falters, U.S. consumers would bear the full burden of higher inflation.

As the dollar’s dominance erodes, gold has firmly cemented its role as the most reliable bulwark against financial upheaval. From central banks to institutional investors—and increasingly, corporates and households—the rush into bullion highlights a singular truth: in a world estranged from the dollar, gold remains the ultimate haven.

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