On Tuesday, Eli Lilly’s stock surged nearly 6%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 index, which rose only 0.4% for the day. The immediate catalyst for this stock increase was the positive results from a Phase III clinical trial of Orforglipron, a highly promising oral weight-loss drug.
This drug belongs to the GLP-1 receptor agonist class, the same category as Lilly’s already marketed Zepbound and its competitor Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy. Lilly announced that Orforglipron met all primary and key secondary endpoints in the 72-week trial. Patients in the highest dose group achieved an average weight loss of 10.5%, significantly outperforming the placebo group’s 2.2% weight reduction. Additionally, the drug demonstrated positive effects in improving glycemic indicators such as hemoglobin A1C (A1C). Based on these results, Lilly plans to submit applications for regulatory approval to agencies like the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), marking a critical step toward commercialization.
Kenneth Custer, President of Lilly’s Cardio-Metabolic Health division, stated that these positive outcomes have accelerated the company’s global registration efforts to meet patient needs. If approved, Orforglipron will offer a convenient once-daily oral treatment, potentially lowering the barrier to medication access and reshaping the global landscape of obesity treatment.
However, the drug’s development journey has not been entirely smooth. Earlier this month, trial results for Orforglipron in a “non-diabetic” population disappointed the market, with an average weight loss of only 12.4% and side effect control falling short of investor expectations. This led to a sharp decline in Lilly’s stock, hitting its lowest point since January 2024. As of Monday, the company’s year-to-date stock decline had exceeded 10%, while its competitor Novo Nordisk’s stock had fallen by over 43% during the same period. Amid this stock pressure, Lilly’s executives and board members collectively increased their holdings, purchasing $4.5 million worth of shares—the largest insider buying since 2019—demonstrating management’s confidence in the company’s prospects.
Analysts predict that the global weight-loss drug market could reach $95 billion by 2030. Although Lilly and Novo Nordisk have already revolutionized obesity treatment with their injectable drugs, oral medications are seen as capable of reaching a broader patient population due to their convenience, less stringent storage and transportation requirements, and lower production costs. This is particularly relevant for the approximately one billion obese individuals worldwide. Lilly executives emphasized that injectable drugs alone cannot meet the enormous market demand and that oral medications are key to unlocking a larger market.
Currently, the development of oral weight-loss drugs still faces scientific challenges. Several trial results have not fully met market expectations, and no oral weight-loss drug has yet received formal approval for market release. As a result, every round of clinical data is closely watched. Novo Nordisk submitted its application for an oral weight-loss drug in May 2025, while Lilly plans to submit Orforglipron’s application to the FDA by the end of this year. If the approval process proceeds smoothly, the drug could officially launch in 2026. A new round of “oral weight-loss drug competition” has already begun.
