In the health care sector of the U.S. stock market, Eli Lilly (LLY) firmly holds the top spot with a market capitalization exceeding $1.1 trillion. However, compared with SpaceX (SPCX), the star company in space exploration, this figure still pales, as the latter is valued at as much as $1.8 trillion. Although Eli Lilly supports its stock price’s year-over-year climb with strong growth, solid financials, and its dominant position in the GLP-1 drug space, SpaceX’s market value is built more on the market’s long-term expectations for its future, while its overall business remains mired in deep losses. The future trajectories of these two stocks may diverge significantly, raising a thought-provoking question: By the end of 2026, can Eli Lilly overtake SpaceX in market capitalization?
Eli Lilly’s confidence in a comeback first comes from its expanding weight-loss drug pipeline. Following the approval of the injectable Zepbound, the company developed the oral weight-loss drug Foundayo, which was approved in April this year, to address some patients’ aversion to needles. Market feedback shows that this strategy is effective, with over 80% of Foundayo prescriptions coming from new patients who had never used a GLP-1 drug, successfully helping Eli Lilly broaden its market boundaries.
An even more promising next-generation drug, Retatrutide, is on the way. Based on published Phase 3 data, its efficacy appears superior to Zepbound, and it has also shown positive effects in reducing glycated hemoglobin levels in diabetic patients, improving obstructive sleep apnea, and alleviating knee osteoarthritis pain. Although Retatrutide will not completely replace Zepbound, it is expected to push the upper limit of weight-loss outcomes to new heights, particularly offering a more potent option for patients who need substantial weight reduction or have obesity-related complications. Currently, Eli Lilly has opened early access to Retatrutide for certain eligible patients (aged 18 and older, not meeting clinical trial enrollment criteria, with treatment-resistant obesity and at least two serious comorbidities)—a market not covered by existing drugs.
At the same time, Eli Lilly is also developing a non-GLP-1 new drug, Eloralintide. This drug mimics the action of amylin to regulate satiety, aiming to provide weight-loss effects on par with GLP-1 class drugs while improving the common gastrointestinal tolerability issues associated with them, thereby attracting patients who cannot tolerate existing therapies. In addition, the company is exploring longer-acting formulations with lower dosing frequencies, as well as combination therapies for conditions such as obesity with psoriatic arthritis.
In contrast to Eli Lilly’s steady progress, SpaceX’s stock, which has only been publicly traded for a few months, has already shown high volatility, recently hitting a low of about $104 amid panic over the lock-up expiration. Given the company’s sustained massive losses and potentially accelerating cash burn in the future, if the next quarterly earnings report disappoints again, the stock may come under renewed pressure, and a potential wave of insider selling could also become a new negative factor.
On the other hand, Eli Lilly’s stock has risen about 25% over the past six months and hit an all-time high on Wednesday. Based on analysts’ forecasts for future growth, its forward price-to-earnings ratio stands at about 34 times. Given the company’s 48% revenue growth in the most recent quarter and its strong profitability, the market’s valuation premium appears justified.
For Eli Lilly’s market value to catch up with SpaceX, its stock price would need to rise more than 60% by the end of the year, and there currently appears to be a lack of sufficient catalysts to support such a dramatic increase. A more likely scenario is a significant pullback in SpaceX’s valuation—for example, its stock price falling about 40% to around $84 per share, bringing the two market capitalizations closer; or a modest decline in SpaceX while Eli Lilly continues to rise.
Overall, in the long term, Eli Lilly has the potential to become a more valuable company than SpaceX, but before the end of 2026, unless SpaceX’s stock completely “crashes,” the valuation gap between the two will remain difficult to bridge. Nevertheless, from an investment perspective, Eli Lilly, with its solid fundamentals, is clearly the better choice at present.
