1911 Gold Corporation (TSXV: AUMB; OTCQX: AUMBF)
1911 Gold is Manitoba’s Gold Standard - Ready, Permitted and High-Grade 1911 Gold is an Emerging Gold Producer, with Significant Cash Flow Generation and District-Scale Growth Potential
In 2025, driven by a global commodities bull market, the mining sector has become a focal point for capital markets. By mid-October, gold prices have robustly breached the $4,200 per ounce mark, while the strategic value of rare earth stocks continues to gain prominence. This has undoubtedly positioned Newmont (NEM) and MP Materials (MP) as two of the most closely watched mining stocks among investors.
This article analyzes the intrinsic value of these two mining giants across three dimensions—financial data, industry trends, and risk-reward profiles—to provide actionable insights for investors.
As the world’s largest gold producer, Newmont leverages its global operations across five continents and economies of scale to stand out as an efficient investment vehicle in the gold bull market. In the second quarter of 2025, the company delivered results that exceeded expectations:
Production and Costs: Achieved gold production of 1.5 million ounces, with all-in sustaining costs (AISC) controlled at $1,375 per ounce, below the industry average.
Cash Flow Performance: Recorded $1.7 billion in free cash flow for the quarter, a historic high.
Capital Returns: Launched a $3 billion stock buyback program, with a stable dividend yield of 1.45%.
Despite an nearly 80% year-to-date surge in its share price, Newmont’s EV/EBITDA ratio remains at 6.5x, below the industry average of 7–8x. With J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs setting gold price targets of $4,500 and $4,650–$4,950 per ounce, respectively, Newmont’s profitability could reach new heights if these projections materialize.
As the sole rare earth producer in the United States, MP Materials is transitioning from a resource-focused company to an integrated supply chain player. In Q2 2025, the company reported neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) production of 597 metric tons, a record high, with management forecasting a further 10%–20% increase in the next quarter.
MP Materials’ Mountain Pass mine in California positions the U.S. to gain a strategic foothold in building a self-reliant supply chain. This advantage has already opened doors to key partnerships, including a major Department of Defense contract with a price floor of $110 per kilogram for NdPr and a $500 million supply agreement with Apple for magnets used in its devices.
However, significant uncertainties remain, especially after the company’s decision in April to halt all exports to China, historically its largest customer. MP Materials is betting that government contracts, Apple’s magnet orders, and new buyers from the U.S., Japan, and South Korea will compensate for the loss of the Chinese market. Yet, the company must pivot toward selling more refined products rather than raw concentrate—a challenging transition, given that its 10X refining facility remains years away from operational readiness.
At its current stock price, MP Materials’ forward P/E ratio of 24x already prices in high growth expectations, while its gross margin remains negative. The core of its investment thesis hinges on whether it can successfully build a rare earth supply chain independent of China.
| Metric | Newmont | MP Materials |
| Market Cap | $103B | $16B |
| YTD Performance | +80% | Highly Volatile |
| Cash Flow | Consistently Positive | Not Yet Profitable |
| Industry Position | Global Leader | Sole U.S. Producer |
| Key Risks | Gold Price Correction | Supply Chain Transition Failure |
Wall Street analysts generally view Newmont as a core holding for precious metal allocations, offering a dual advantage of defensive cash flow and gold price leverage. In contrast, MP Materials is seen as a thematic investment, with its performance hinging on three key catalysts: subsequent subsidies under the U.S. Critical Minerals Security Act; progress in the construction of the 10X refining facility; the timing of order ramp-ups for Apple’s electric vehicle magnets.
Morgan Stanley cautions investors: “MP Materials’ valuation already reflects some of these expectations. Until refining capacity is operational, the stock is likely to remain highly volatile.”
Against the backdrop of energy transition and geopolitical realignment, Newmont represents the stability of traditional precious metals, while MP Materials embodies the potential of rare earth supply chain independence. Investors may align their allocations with their risk tolerance—using Newmont as a foundational holding and treating MP Materials as an option on technological transformation. As the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle begins and global supply chains continue to evolve, these two stocks are poised to chart distinct value trajectories.
