A promotional video supporting CBD (cannabidiol) posted by President Donald Trump on his Truth Social platform has triggered significant volatility in capital markets. Industry insiders interpret this move as a “trial balloon” from the White House to gauge public acceptance of marijuana legalization, signaling a potential historic shift in federal cannabis policy in the United States.
Adam Stettner, CEO of FundCanna, a leading lender to the cannabis industry, noted on Monday that this marks the first time a “sitting president has ever publicly pushed for Medicare to cover cannabinoids.” He suggested the video reflects a shift in thinking within the White House. Notably, while Trump posted the video, he did not appear in it himself. The content was produced by the Commonwealth Project, a nonprofit backed by philanthropist Howard Kessler, which advocates for integrating medical cannabis into mainstream healthcare for seniors.
The video highlighted Trump’s prior policy achievement – signing the 2018 Farm Bill, which removed hemp containing less than 0.3% THC from the list of federally controlled substances. In an infomercial-style presentation, the video describes the body’s endocannabinoid system, which supposedly weakens with age causing pain, arthritis, and other issues. It argues that hemp-derived CBD is a superior alternative to “dangerous and addictive pharmaceuticals” for restoring this system, alleviating pain, reducing stress, improving sleep, and even extending lifespan.
More notably, the Commonwealth Project claimed widespread adoption of medical marijuana could cut up to $64 billion annually from U.S. healthcare costs. This figure is likely highly attractive to Trump, who has long focused on reducing government spending. The video concluded with a direct appeal alongside Trump’s portrait: “You will deliver the most important senior health initiative of the century,” making its lobbying intent clear.
Despite market enthusiasm, Stettner cautioned investors to remain rational. He views the video more as a test of public reaction to a “decision already made or soon to come.” Given that only three months remain in 2025, even if a decision is imminent, a formal announcement would most likely occur during the State of the Union address in January next year. Subsequent Congressional debate, votes in the House and Senate, and a presidential signature would follow, with the entire legislative process potentially stretching into mid-2026.
Analysts note that with support seemingly growing from both Democrats and some Republicans, the bill could face relatively smooth passage. Professional financial media predict the U.S. could achieve federal marijuana legalization by 2026.
Financial markets have already reacted to the policy expectations. On Monday, major cannabis stocks soared: Canada-based Canopy Growth (CGC) closed up 17%, Aurora Cannabis (ACB) surged 28%, and Tilray (TLRY) recorded a staggering 60% gain. Curaleaf Holdings (CURLF), a leading cannabis company headquartered in the U.S., saw its shares jump more than 37%.
While the policy winds seem favorable, investors should note the characteristically high volatility of cannabis stocks. Many experienced declines exceeding 90% during the 2018-2020 cannabis investment boom. Experts recommend focusing on leading companies with stable cash flow, compliant production capabilities, and full-industry-chain layouts, while avoiding speculative stocks driven purely by hype.
