Gold Surges Past $4,160, Goldman Sachs Sets $4,900 Price Target

Gold extended its rally, with spot prices climbing to $4,162.55 per ounce, hitting their strongest level since mid-November. The uptrend is fueled by a combination of easing geopolitical tensions, softer U.S. economic data, and a more accommodative stance from global central banks, reinforcing gold’s role as a safe-haven asset.

Market analysts note that gold has entered a “macro-protective cycle,” driven not by short-term crises but by structural uncertainties surrounding U.S. monetary policy and evolving peace dynamics in Eastern Europe. Against a backdrop of receding geopolitical risks and early signs of U.S. economic fatigue, investors are increasingly reallocating portfolios toward gold as a store of value.

Technically, the decisive break above the psychologically key $4,150 level has strengthened bullish momentum. The move aligns with UBS’s year-end target of $4,200, with a mid-2026 goal of $4,500 if dovish fundamentals persist.

Key indicators support the sustainability of the rally:

• The RSI remains constructive without signaling overbought conditions
• The MACD turned positive for the first time since early November
• Institutional trading volumes have increased, reflecting heightened hedging demand against falling real yields and geopolitical uncertainty

Goldman Sachs Reinforces Bullish Stance

In a recent interview, Daan Struyven, head of commodity research at Goldman Sachs, emphasized the firm’s strongly optimistic outlook: “We are as bullish as ever on gold. We expect an additional 20% upside by the end of 2026, with a price target of $4,900 per ounce.” While the pace may slow compared to this year’s nearly 60% surge, Struyven expects the two key drivers of the 2025 rally to extend into 2026.

He highlighted two structural tailwinds:

1. Sustained central bank purchasing: Since the freezing of Russia’s central bank reserves in 2022, emerging market reserve managers have increasingly turned to gold as the “only truly safe asset” when held domestically.
2. The Federal Reserve’s rate-cutting cycle: As a non-yielding asset, gold tends to attract inflows into ETFs when interest rates fall. Goldman economists forecast an additional 75 basis points of Fed cuts.

Struyven also pointed to significant upside potential from private-sector diversification: “The gold market is relatively small—global gold ETFs are about 1/70th the size of the U.S. Treasury market. Even a modest shift of funds from bonds into gold could substantially lift prices.”

On October 6, Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 gold forecast from $4,300 to $4,900 per ounce, citing expectations for strong Western ETF inflows and sustained central bank buying. The bank projects central bank purchases will average 80 tonnes in 2025 and 70 tonnes in 2026.

Year-to-date, spot gold has gained nearly 60%, supported by robust central bank demand, rising ETF investments, a weaker U.S. dollar, and growing retail hedging activity.

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