While silver prices reached a historic high of $56 per ounce, copper, the bellwether of industrial metals, also celebrated a milestone moment. On Friday (November 28), the three-month copper futures on the London Metal Exchange (LME) surged by 2.5% at one point, touching a record high of $11,210.50 per ton, and ultimately closed up 2.3%.
Meanwhile, U.S. COMEX copper futures also rose by 2%, reaching a peak of $5.3095 per pound. With this, copper prices have accumulated a gain of approximately 27% in 2025.
The immediate driver of this price breakthrough came from an industry gathering held in Shanghai this week. This meeting, which brought together global major miners, smelters, and traders, focused on the increasingly tight market fundamentals.
At the event, Kostas Bintas, head of metals at the commodities trading giant Mercuria, once again issued a strong bullish forecast. He warned that the rush to meet U.S. demand risks depleting copper inventories in the rest of the world. Bintas emphasized in an interview on the sidelines that if the world continues on this path, regions outside the United States could face a shortage of copper cathodes.
Bintas’s bullish call does not stand alone. Natalie Scott-Gray, a senior metals analyst at StoneX Financial, pointed out, “We are already building a ‘perfect storm’ bullish narrative for the market by year-end.” She cited three key supporting factors: tariff expectations, an improving macroeconomic outlook, and persistent supply disruptions.
The core contradiction in the current copper market stems from the disconnect between strong long-term demand prospects and a fragile supply chain. The accelerated global energy transition has created rigid demand support for copper, a key conductive metal. However, factors such as underinvestment in mines and production disruptions continue to constrain the supply side’s ability to respond.
Meanwhile, policy uncertainty has become a significant variable disturbing the market. Traders have been stepping up shipments to the U.S. in recent weeks to capitalize on the high premiums in the COMEX market, driven by potential future tariff uncertainties. This arbitrage behavior across markets, aimed at hedging policy risks, has exacerbated spot tightness in regions outside the United States.
In addition to strong fundamentals, copper’s financial attributes have provided an extra boost. Growing market expectations of a Fed rate cut by the end of the year have weakened the appeal of U.S. dollar-denominated assets while potentially stimulating growth and metal demand in the world’s largest economy, the United States. This has added upward momentum to dollar-denominated copper prices.
Friday’s market movements were also influenced by technical factors. The multi-hour trading outage that previously occurred on the CME Group exchange amplified market volatility after trading resumed. Coupled with thin trading volumes due to the U.S. “Black Friday” holiday, these factors collectively contributed to the sharp price swings.
Copper’s record-breaking price is the result of a combination of structural supply-demand gaps, short-term policy, and the macro-financial environment. Warnings from industry leaders and the market’s “perfect storm” narrative reinforce each other, driving continuous capital inflows.
Against the backdrop of already tight global inventories, any concentrated procurement targeting specific regions could trigger a chain reaction, suggesting that copper prices still have room to rise even after hitting new highs.
