Algo Grande Copper Corp. (TSXV: ALGR)
High-Grade Copper in North America
Due to declining output at several major copper mines, Chile has lowered its copper production forecast for the second consecutive quarter. The Chilean Copper Commission (Cochilco) released its latest report stating that, dragged down by weak performance at mines operated by Codelco and BHP, Chile’s copper production is expected to fall by 2.6% to 5.27 million metric tons in 2026. This figure represents a reduction of 300,000 tons from the previous quarter’s forecast and is far below the earlier expectation of 5.6 million tons.
Cochilco explained that the weak production outlook is mainly attributable to particularly sluggish performance in the first half of the year. Output declined at Codelco’s mines as well as at BHP’s Escondida and Spence operations, while multiple active mining districts face structural constraints. Data show that in the first five months of this year, Chile’s copper production fell by approximately 9% year-on-year, with declines in April and May reaching around 14% and 13%, respectively. The agency expects production to recover somewhat in the second half of the year.
Looking ahead to 2027, Cochilco forecasts that Chile’s copper production will rebound to 5.55 million tons, mainly benefiting from a lower comparison base as well as operational recoveries and capacity ramp-ups. At the same time, Cochilco raised its 2026 average copper price forecast to $5.95 per pound and maintained its 2027 estimate at $5.10 per pound, stating that strong global demand and continued supply constraints will keep the market tight. The agency projects that global copper demand in 2026 will reach 27.8 million tons, up 1.9%, with Chinese consumption expected to grow 2.7% to 16 million tons, accounting for 57.6% of global demand.
Cochilco expects global copper mine production to grow by only 0.2% this year, meaning that even though the refined copper market remains in a modest surplus, the global supply buffer against further production disruptions is extremely limited. Recently, copper prices have hovered near historical highs as investors await the U.S. decision on refined copper tariffs and amid uncertain prospects for navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Although the deadline for the U.S. Secretary of Commerce to submit tariff recommendations has passed, the White House has yet to announce a final policy. The market is closely watching whether Trump will expand the current protective measures on semi-finished copper products to include raw materials such as refined copper, but the timeline for a final decision has not yet been clarified.
In the medium to long term, copper prices are still expected to find support. Copper is widely used in electric vehicle batteries, data centers, and many other sectors. Against the backdrop of the rapidly advancing global artificial intelligence computing infrastructure buildout, data centers are becoming an important growth driver for copper consumption. Morgan Stanley’s report projects that global copper consumption in data centers will increase to 740,000 tons in 2026, reach 1 million tons in 2027, and further rise to 1.3 million tons in 2028, representing a compound annual growth rate of 40%. Jefferies estimates that by 2030, total global copper demand will reach 30.93 million tons, while supply is projected to be only approximately 30.09 million tons, leaving a gap of about 840,000 tons. Based on this, the firm sets a long-term price benchmark of $6.50 per pound for copper in 2030. Jefferies stated bluntly that even in a scenario where global GDP growth is only 2%, the copper market will still experience a fairly substantial supply-demand shortfall over the next 12 months and beyond.
