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A year of massive returns amid sharp volatility in 2025 has set the stage for another divergent performance across major commodities in 2026, according to Goldman Sachs. The investment bank forecasts that the standout trends of 2025—record-breaking gold rallies and persistent crude oil weakness—are set to extend into the new year.
In a December 18 report, analysts including Daan Struyven and Samantha Dart outlined the firm’s key calls on raw materials. The commodity complex delivered generational returns in 2025, with silver leading the pack at over 127% gains, platinum soaring around 120%, gold advancing an impressive 65%, and copper posting a significant 35% return.
Goldman’s base case for gold is a rally to $4,900 per ounce, with risks skewed to the upside. The analysts identified two key drivers: structurally high central bank demand and cyclical support from anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts.
“Fed-driven reductions in carry costs have led ETF investors to start competing with central banks for limited bullion,” the report stated. “We expect the same two drivers to lift the gold price further.”
Echoing the bullish sentiment, commodity analysts at TD Securities highlighted additional supportive factors. They project gold will reach a new quarterly record of $4,400/oz in the first half of 2026, fueled by Fed-driven cost reductions, an expected yield curve steepening, and potential concerns surrounding Fed independence.
“Looming concerns that the future Fed may not aggressively pursue a 2% inflation target, along with speculation the White House could lobby for lower rates amid record-high U.S. debt, are very important reasons why we think the bullish gold trend will reassert itself,” TD analysts noted.
In stark contrast, crude oil faces significant downside pressure. Goldman analysts warned that barring major supply disruptions or OPEC+ production cuts, lower prices in 2026 will likely be necessary to rebalance the market. “We expect the 2026 surplus to lead to an acceleration in OECD commercial stock builds,” they wrote.
The bank forecasts the global benchmark Brent crude will average $56 a barrel next year, with U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) averaging $52. This contrasts with Brent trading below $60 a barrel last Friday, posting a second consecutive weekly loss despite supply concerns stemming from geopolitical tensions in Venezuela.
Other Commodity Forecasts
Goldman’s outlook for other key commodities includes:
While the broader commodities sector is on track for a modest advance this year, its aggregate performance masks extreme variations. Gold has been buoyed by central bank buying, Fed policy expectations, and ETF inflows, whereas oil remains burdened by pervasive oversupply concerns. Goldman’s projections paint a picture of a sharply diverging landscape for resource markets in 2026.
