Intel (INTC) is scheduled to release its fourth-quarter results after the market closes on Thursday. The market consensus expects earnings per share of $0.08 and revenue of approximately $13.39 billion, suggesting a potential 6% year-over-year decline in quarterly revenue. Despite facing pressure, the company’s stock price has surged over 80% in the past year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 index, which rose about 17% over the same period.
Under the leadership of CEO Patrick Gelsinger, Intel is advancing a significant transformation strategy, which includes implementing substantial cost reductions and securing a series of strategic investments from companies such as Nvidia and SoftBank. Additionally, approximately 10% of its shares are held by entities related to the Trump administration, along with a massive $11.1 billion investment from the U.S. government, both of which have significantly strengthened the company’s balance sheet. These factors have led investors and analysts to hold more optimistic expectations regarding the combined effects of the AI wave and the company’s transformation.
Previously, HSBC analyst Frank Lee adopted a cautious stance toward Intel, primarily due to concerns about uncertainties in its customer channels, challenges in executing its foundry business, and limited visibility into growth drivers for its core operations. However, the bank now anticipates that server CPU demand, driven by agent AI, is experiencing a sharp increase and predicts server shipments will grow by 15% to 20% year-over-year in fiscal year 2026. UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri also noted that, despite ongoing supply constraints, there is potential for upside in the fourth-quarter results due to robust demand in both personal computers and servers. Furthermore, market expectations for the next quarter’s guidance are considered within an acceptable range. Although global memory supply tightness may pose additional challenges, analysis suggests that the 2026 performance guidance points to growth recovery, margin expansion, and business stabilization.
Looking back over the past two years, Intel has exceeded earnings per share expectations 63% of the time and revenue expectations 75% of the time. Over the last three months, earnings per share estimates have been revised upward 16 times and downward 11 times, while revenue estimates have been revised upward 15 times and downward 16 times. Currently, Seeking Alpha, its quantitative rating system, and Wall Street analysts generally assign the stock a “Neutral” rating, reflecting a cautious stance.
Just ahead of the earnings release, Intel’s stock price surged by 10.8% on Wednesday morning. This volatility was directly attributed to Bernstein SocGen Group analysts raising their price target for Intel from $35 to $36 per share. However, a less than 3% adjustment in the price target triggering such a significant stock price rally may itself be an overreaction, especially given the current stock price exceeds $53 per share.
Another key factor driving market sentiment is the view from RBC Capital Markets. The institution also maintains a “Sector Perform” rating (equivalent to “Hold”) but noted in its report that Intel’s upcoming fourth-quarter earnings report is likely to exceed expectations. Their analysis suggests that PC demand is “decent,” server CPU demand is strong, but supply constraints may persist into the first quarter of 2026. The combination of these factors could lead Intel’s earnings report to achieve a “slight” outperformance relative to expectations.
