Global cobalt demand is entering a new growth cycle, with the Cobalt Institute forecasting a 4% rise in 2025 and a further acceleration to 6% in 2026. Behind this optimistic outlook, however, export restrictions from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)—the world’s leading supplier—are reshaping market dynamics, presenting both opportunities and challenges for investors.
In response to falling prices, the DRC suspended cobalt exports in February 2025 before reintroducing a quota system in mid‑October. The move quickly shifted market sentiment: cobalt prices on the London Metal Exchange doubled during the embargo, surpassing $44,000 per ton on October 17.
Yet Kenny Ives, Chief Commercial Officer of China’s CMOC Group—one of the largest cobalt producers operating in the DRC—warned that a sustained price surge could push battery makers toward low‑cobalt alternatives. “If you starve the downstream of cobalt units, clearly there are different chemistry options, and the Chinese and others will switch,” Ives told Bloomberg.
Although lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries have gained market share, current cobalt prices remain well below the historic peaks of $95,000 per ton seen in 2018 and 2022. The DRC’s quotas have hit CMOC particularly hard—the company received only 6,500 tons for the second half of 2025, compared with production of 61,073 tons in the first half.
Nevertheless, the Cobalt Institute’s demand projections have tempered concerns over rapid substitution. “43% of lithium‑ion battery demand in 2025 will come from cobalt‑containing chemistries,” noted William Talbot, Head of Research at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. “While LFP’s share will grow, NMC [nickel‑manganese‑cobalt] batteries remain critical, especially in Western markets.”
The DRC has set a fourth‑quarter 2025 export cap of 18,125 tons, bringing the annual total close to 2020 levels but only about half of 2023–2024 volumes. The country’s policy will continue to evolve alongside price and demand trends. Cobalt, primarily obtained as a by‑product of copper and nickel refining, is essential for electric‑vehicle batteries, industrial components, and paints—and its long‑term demand fundamentals remain supported by the global energy transition.
In recent years, cobalt prices surged in 2021–2022 on EV momentum before oversupply dragged spot prices down more than 60% by mid‑2024. The DRC’s 2025 interventions provided short‑term support, and the quota system is expected to constrain supplies through 2026–2027. For investors who believe in cobalt’s enduring role in battery technology and renewable energy, near‑term volatility may offer a strategic entry point.
Given that cobalt is mostly a by‑product, pure‑play miners are rare. Investors can gain exposure through diversified mining giants:
No ETF tracks cobalt alone, but battery‑technology and materials funds offer indirect exposure:
While DRC policies and battery‑chemistry competition will continue to drive cobalt price volatility, the long‑term energy transition remains a firm tailwind. In 2026, investors may consider established miners with resource control or diversify through battery‑chain ETFs to balance risks and capture opportunities in this critical metal.
