Prismo Metals Inc. (CSE:PRIZ)
A leadership team with a proven ability to explore, operate and develop precious metal discoveries.
Copper prices have continued to climb, approaching historical highs in recent weeks, while the share price of global leading copper and gold miner Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) has experienced a minor dip. Analysts point out that this precisely presents a rare buying opportunity for investors. As the company gradually recovers from the fatal mine accident in Indonesia, its earnings are expected to improve substantially in 2026 and continue into 2027. Under the current positive market outlook, the stock’s valuation remains significantly attractive.
Investors typically focus on two key copper price benchmarks: the U.S. COMEX price and the internationally used LME price. The good news is that both are currently trading near their all-time highs. The COMEX copper price is now approximately $5.65 per pound, a significant increase from $4.10 a year ago.
Particularly noteworthy is that, due to previous market concerns about potential import tariffs on copper by the Trump administration, the spread between COMEX and LME copper prices reached nearly 30% in the summer of 2025. Now, the spread has narrowed and both prices are rising in tandem. This reflects strong underlying demand rather than mere inventory stockpiling in anticipation of tariffs, which constitutes a more solid positive for producers like Freeport.
Despite the favorable market environment, the fatal accident Freeport previously encountered in Indonesia impacted its output, leading the company to lower its sales guidance for 2025 and 2026.
| Freeport-McMoRan Production Guidance | 2025 Estimate | 2026 Estimate | 2027 Estimate |
| Copper (July Guidance, billion pounds) | 3.95 | 4.3 | 4.3 |
| Copper (November Guidance, billion pounds) | 3.5 | 3.45 | 4.1 |
| Gold (July Guidance, million ounces) | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Gold (November Guidance, million ounces) | 1.05 | 0.75 | 1.2 |
However, the downward revision in production expectations does not overshadow the company’s investment value. In 2026, investors still have three major reasons to be bullish on this stock:
First, the price increase far outweighs the production loss. Since the tariff policy (which exempted copper ore and concentrates) became clear in late July 2025, the copper price has surged from about $4.40 to $5.65 per pound, and the gold price has risen from about $3,360 to $4,330 per ounce. The sharp rise in metal prices will completely offset and exceed the decline in sales volume.
Second, production is set for a robust recovery. Management expects Indonesian operations to gradually return to full production through 2026 and 2027. Taking 2026 as an example, 40% of the full-year copper sales and 20% of gold sales will be concentrated in the first half, with the shares jumping to 60% and 80% respectively in the second half. Wall Street analysts anticipate that as production in Indonesia improves, the company’s EBITDA will grow sequentially from about $1.5 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025 to approximately $3.7 billion in the fourth quarter of 2026.
Most importantly, the stock valuation is highly attractive. Based on management’s conservative estimate, assuming a copper price of $5 per pound, the company could generate EBITDA of $12 billion in 2026, with an average of $15.5 billion for 2027-2028. The current copper price is already 13% higher than the company’s assumption, and its enterprise value (EV) is only $89.4 billion. Based on this calculation, its EV/EBITDA valuation multiples for 2026 and 2027 are only 7.5x and 5.8x, respectively.
In summary, although predicting copper price trends is extremely difficult, for investors willing to be agnostic on prices and simply assume the current price level holds, Freeport-McMoRan stock demonstrates substantial upside potential. During this industry upcycle, this mining giant, which is steadily recovering from adversity, may currently be undervalued by the market.
