1911 Gold Corporation (TSXV: AUMB; OTCQX: AUMBF)
1911 Gold is Manitoba’s Gold Standard - Ready, Permitted and High-Grade 1911 Gold is an Emerging Gold Producer, with Significant Cash Flow Generation and District-Scale Growth Potential
Gold and silver rallied strongly this week, driven by improving macroeconomic sentiment. Softer-than-expected U.S. inflation and consumer spending data significantly reduced market expectations for another Federal Reserve rate hike in September, pushing gold back above $4,400 per ounce and silver above $64/oz. As of Friday’s close, spot gold was trading at $4,387.62/oz, up 0.61% on the day and posting a monthly gain of more than 10%.
The pullback in rate-hike expectations has been the primary driver behind this precious metals rally. Markets had previously priced in roughly a 55% probability of a September rate hike, but following this week’s moderate CPI and PPI readings, that expectation has tumbled to approximately 31%. Investors are now reassessing the Fed’s policy path, with the “tail risk” of further tightening gradually being priced out.
Looking ahead to next week, a series of key economic releases and Federal Reserve policy signals could serve as important catalysts for gold’s near-term direction. Monday kicks off with the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index, offering an early snapshot of regional industrial activity. Tuesday’s building permits and housing starts data, followed by pending home sales, will further reveal the extent to which elevated interest rates are weighing on the housing market. As one of the most rate-sensitive sectors of the economy, continued weakness in housing data could reinforce expectations that the Fed will stay on hold, while an unexpected rebound might rekindle concerns over economic resilience.
The release of the Federal Reserve’s July 28-29 policy meeting minutes on Wednesday will likely be the focal point for markets next week. Against the backdrop of Fed Chair Warsh’s communication style being perceived by some as lacking transparency, investors are eager to glean from the minutes the policymakers’ true deliberations on inflation, economic growth, and the appropriate rate path. Notably, the July meeting concluded with a 9–3 vote to keep rates unchanged in the 3.50%–3.75% range, with three dissenting members favoring a 25-basis-point hike. Any indication that officials are growing more comfortable with maintaining current rates would provide support for gold; conversely, if the minutes reveal more hawkish discussions, they could exert near-term pressure on the precious metal by pushing Treasury yields and the dollar higher.
Thursday’s weekly jobless claims and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, along with Friday’s flash S&P Global U.S. Composite PMI, also warrant close attention from investors. As high-frequency measures of employment and private-sector activity, if the data collectively come in on the weaker side—particularly when combined with dovish meeting minutes—they would further reinforce the market narrative of “peak rates,” providing fundamental support for gold’s upside. Should the data surprise to the upside or offer fresh evidence of re-emerging inflationary pressures, however, the renewed volatility in rate-hike expectations could create near-term headwinds for bullion.
Market participants have noted that after six months of range-bound consolidation, gold’s fundamentals and technicals are beginning to align, with some projecting a potential recovery toward the $4,700–$5,000/oz range by September. However, the realization of this outlook will largely depend on whether next week’s data and policy signals continue to validate the macroeconomic narrative of “slowing growth and a paused Fed.”
