Among tech giants, Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL) have undoubtedly propelled numerous investors to millionaire status. However, for investors who do not yet hold shares in these two companies, which stock is more likely to replicate this miracle today? Some analysts suggest the answer might be Alphabet.
This is not to suggest that investing in Microsoft is doomed to fail. Windows remains the dominant force in computer operating systems, and its cloud computing business is a steady cash cow. However, Microsoft is losing ground in several key areas, the most important being Artificial Intelligence (AI).
A case in point is the lackluster market reception for Microsoft’s AI assistant, Copilot. Among the 450 million paid users of its personal productivity platform, Microsoft 365, upgrading to the more capable premium version of Copilot is just a simple click away, yet only 15 million users have actually completed the upgrade.
Of course, AI isn’t everything. Microsoft’s cloud business remains a significant component of its profits. But data from Synergy Research Group shows that while Microsoft’s cloud revenue is still growing, its market share is eroding. In an environment where outperforming competitors is crucial for stock value, merely moving forward is no longer sufficient. On a deeper level, this suggests that too many of Microsoft’s services are gradually losing their relevance. This situation can occur and can be fixed, but it is neither easy nor quick.
So, who captured the cloud computing market share that Microsoft lost? The answer is Google Cloud, under Alphabet. According to Synergy Research Group data, Google Cloud’s share of global cloud computing revenue continued to grow in the fourth quarter of last year, reaching a record high of 21%.
Even more impressively, this growth has finally begun to have a substantial impact on Alphabet’s profits. Although its cloud computing revenue surged by 48% year-over-year in the fourth quarter, this progress more than doubled the segment’s operating profit to $5.3 billion. Of course, this still represents a minority of the company’s total profit of $35.9 billion for the quarter.
However, cloud computing is not only Alphabet’s fastest-growing business but also the fastest-growing service provider in the global cloud market. According to forecasts by Straits Research, the global cloud computing industry is expected to expand at an average annual rate of nearly 19% by 2033. Alphabet’s leading cloud business could soon become its primary source of profit.
Meanwhile, Alphabet’s flagship business—advertising—remains remarkably strong. Even against the backdrop of economic turbulence and intensified competition from Amazon, Google’s advertising revenue in the fourth quarter of 2025 still grew by over 13% year-over-year, accelerating the full-year growth pace of 11.4%. Compared to Microsoft’s performance, Alphabet’s data highlights the increasing relevance of its services.
Of course, both of these situations could change in the future. However, given that consumer and institutional perceptions of the two companies’ products are largely established and may change slowly, Alphabet’s outperformance could potentially last for many years. Its stock price trend is also likely to follow suit.
